1.3.2.4 Total GHG emissions

Without additional policies global GHG emissions (including those from deforestation) are projected to increase between 25% and 90% by 2030 relative to 2000 (see Figure 1.7). Fossil fuel dominance is expected to continue up to 2030 and beyond; consequently, CO₂ emissions from energy use tend to grow faster than total GHGs, increasing by 1.2–2.5% over that period. Two thirds to three quarters of the increase in CO₂ emissions are projected to come from developing countries, although the average per capita CO₂ emissions in developing country regions will remain substantially lower (2.8– 5.1 tCO₂ per capita) than those in developed country regions (9.6–15.1 tCO₂ per capita).

By 2100, the range in the GHG emission projections is much wider from a 40% reduction to an increase of 250% compared to 2000. Scenarios that account for climate policies currently under discussion for implementation also show global emissions rising for many decades. With the atmospheric concentrations of GHGs thus unlikely to stabilize in this century (even for the low SRES scenario) without major policy changes, from an emissions perspective, we are not on track for meeting the objectives of UNFCCC Article 2.

1.3.3 Technology research, development and deployment: needs and trends

1.3.3.1 Research and development

Technology research and development (R&D) are important for altering the emission trends shown in the previous sections. In the absence of measures fostering the development of climate-friendly technologies and/or a lack of incentives for their deployment, however, it is not a priori obvious in which direction R&D will influence emissions. Because of the longevity of energy infrastructures (lock-in effect), it is the near-term investment decisions in the development, deployment and diffusion of technologies that will determine the long-term development of the energy system and its emissions (Gritsevskyi and Nakicenovic, 2002).

Generally speaking, it would be economically impossible without technology research, development, demonstration, deployment and diffusion (RDDD&D) and induced technology change (ITC), to stabilize GHG concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Government support is crucial at the development stage, but private investment will gradually replace the former for deployment (creating necessary market transformation) and for diffusion (successful market penetration).

However, RDDD&D alone is insufficient and effective climate policies are also required (Baker et al., 2006). A recent international modelling comparison exercise (Edenhofer et al., 2006) has shown that ITC not only has the potential to reduce mitigation costs substantially but that it is also essential to the stabilization of concentration levels of CO₂, avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference.

There are various types of technologies that can play significant roles in mitigating climate change, including energy efficiency improvements throughout the energy system (especially at the end use side); solar, wind, nuclear fission and fusion and geothermal, biomass and clean fossil technologies, including carbon capture and storage; energy from waste; hydrogen production from non-fossil energy sources and fuel cells (Pacala and Socolow, 2004; IEA, 2006b). Some are in their infancy and require public RDDD&D support, while others are more mature and need only market incentives for their deployment and diffusion. Some also need persevering efforts for public acceptance (Tokushige et al., 2006) as well as the resolution of legal and liability issues.