3.1 Emissions scenarios

The evolution of future greenhouse gas emissions and their underlying driving forces is highly uncertain, as reflected in the wide range of future emissions pathways across (more than 750) emission scenarios in the literature. This chapter assesses this literature, focusing especially on new multi-gas baseline scenarios produced since the publication of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al., 2000) and on new multi-gas mitigation scenarios in the literature since the publication of the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR, Working Group III, Chapter 2, Morita et al., 2001). This literature is referred to as ‘post-SRES’ scenarios.

The SRES scenarios were representative of some 500 emissions scenarios in the literature, grouped as A1, A2, B1 and B2, at the time of their publication in 2000. Of special relevance in this review is the question of how representative the SRES ranges of driving forces and emission levels are of the newer scenarios in the literature, and how representative the TAR stabilization levels and mitigation options are compared with the new multi-gas stabilization scenarios. Other important aspects of this review include methodological, data and other advances since the time the SRES scenarios were developed.

This chapter uses the results of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-21) scenarios and the new Innovation Modelling Comparison Project (IMCP) network scenarios. In contrast to SRES and post-SRES scenarios, these new modelling-comparison activities are not based on fully harmonized baseline scenario assumptions, but rather on ‘modeller’s choice’ scenarios. Thus, further uncertainties have been introduced due to different assumptions and different modelling approaches. Another emerging complication is that even baseline (also called reference) scenarios include some explicit policies directed at emissions reduction, notably due to the Kyoto Protocol entering into force, and other climate-related policies that are being implemented in many parts of the world.

Another difficulty in straightforward comparisons is that the information and documentation of the scenarios in the literature varies considerably.