EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Annual total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions arising from the global energy supply sector continue to increase. Combustion of fossil fuels continues to dominate a global energy market that is striving to meet the ever-increasing demand for heat, electricity and transport fuels. GHG emissions from fossil fuels have increased each year since the IPCC 2001 Third Assessment Report (TAR) (IPCC,2001), despite greater deployment of low- and zero-carbon technologies, (particularly those utilizing renewable energy); the implementation of various policy support mechanisms by many states and countries; the advent of carbon trading in some regions, and a substantial increase in world energy commodity prices. Without the near-term introduction of supportive and effective policy actions by governments, energy-related GHG emissions, mainly from fossil fuel combustion, are projected to rise by over 50% from 26.1 GtCO₂eq (7.1 GtC) in 2004 to 37–40 GtCO₂ (10.1–10.9 GtC) by 2030. Mitigation has therefore become even more challenging.

Global dependence on fossil fuels has led to the release of over 1100 GtCO₂ into the atmosphere since the mid-19^th century. Currently, energy-related GHG emissions, mainly from fossil fuel combustion for heat supply, electricity generation and transport, account for around 70% of total emissions including carbon dioxide, methane and some traces of nitrous oxide (Chapter 1). To continue to extract and combust the world’s rich endowment of oil, coal, peat, and natural gas at current or increasing rates, and so release more of the stored carbon into the atmosphere, is no longer environmentally sustainable, unless carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies currently being developed can be widely deployed (high agreement, much evidence).

There are regional and societal variations in the demand for energy services. The highest per-capita demand is by those living in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies, but currently, the most rapid growth is in many developing countries. Energy access, equity and sustainable development are compromised by higher and rapidly fluctuating prices for oil and gas. These factors may increase incentives to deploy carbon-free and low-carbon energy technologies, but conversely, could also encourage the market uptake of coal and cheaper unconventional hydrocarbons and technologies with consequent increases in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions.

Energy access for all will require making available basic and affordable energy services using a range of energy resources and innovative conversion technologies while minimizing GHG emissions, adverse effects on human health, and other local and regional environmental impacts. To accomplish this would require governments, the global energy industry and society as a whole to collaborate on an unprecedented scale. The method used to achieve optimum integration of heating, cooling, electricity and transport fuel provision with more efficient energy systems will vary with the region, local growth rate of energy demand, existing infrastructure and by identifying all the co-benefits (high agreement, much evidence).

The wide range of energy sources and carriers that provide energy services need to offer long-term security of supply, be affordable and have minimal impact on the environment. However, these three government goals often compete. There are sufficient reserves of most types of energy resources to last at least several decades at current rates of use when using technologies with high energy-conversion efficient designs. How best to use these resources in an environmentally acceptable manner while providing for the needs of growing populations and developing economies is a great challenge.

• Conventional oil reserves will eventually peak as will natural gas reserves, but it is uncertain exactly when and what will be the nature of the transition to alternative liquid fuels such as coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids, oil shales, tar sands, heavy oils, and biofuels. It is still uncertain how and to what extent these alternatives will reach the market and what the resultant changes in global GHG emissions will be as a result.
• Conventional natural gas reserves are more abundant in energy terms than conventional oil, but they are also distributed less evenly across regions. Unconventional gas resources are also abundant, but future economic development of these resources is uncertain.
• Coal is unevenly distributed, but remains abundant. It can be converted to liquids, gases, heat and power, although more intense utilization will demand viable CCS technologies if GHG emissions from its use are to be limited.
• There is a trend towards using energy carriers with increased efficiency and convenience, particularly away from solid fuels to liquid and gaseous fuels and electricity.
• Nuclear energy, already at about 7% of total primary energy, could make an increasing contribution to carbon-free electricity and heat in the future. The major barriers are: long-term fuel resource constraints without recycling; economics; safety; waste management; security; proliferation, and adverse public opinion.
• Renewable energy sources (with the exception of large hydro) are widely dispersed compared with fossil fuels, which are concentrated at individual locations and require distribution. Hence, renewable energy must either be used in a distributed manner or concentrated to meet the higher energy demands of cities and industries.
• Non-hydro renewable energy-supply technologies, particularly solar, wind, geothermal and biomass, are currently small overall contributors to global heat and electricity supply, but are the most rapidly increasing. Costs, as well as social and environmental barriers, are restricting this growth. Therefore, increased rates of deployment may need supportive government policies and measures.
• Traditional biomass for domestic heating and cooking still accounts for more than 10% of global energy supplies but could eventually be replaced, mainly by modern biomass and other renewable energy systems as well as by fossil-based domestic fuels such as kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) (high agreement, much evidence – except traditional biomass).

Security of energy supply issues and perceived future benefits from strategic investments may not necessarily encourage the greater uptake of lower carbon-emitting technologies. The various concerns about the future security of conventional oil, gas and electricity supplies could aid the transition to more low-carbon technologies such as nuclear, renewables and CCS. However, these same concerns could also encourage the greater uptake of unconventional oil and gaseous fuels as well as increase demand for coal and lignite in countries with abundant national supplies and seeking national energy-supply security.

Addressing environmental impacts usually depends on the introduction of regulations and tax incentives rather than relying on market mechanisms. Large-scale energy-conversion plants with a life of 30–100 years give a slow rate of turnover of around 1–3% per year. Thus, decisions taken today that support the deployment of carbon-emitting technologies, especially in countries seeking supply security to provide sustainable development paths, could have profound effects on GHG emissions for the next several decades. Smaller-scale, distributed energy plants using local energy resources and low- or zero-carbon emitting technologies, can give added reliability, be built more quickly and be efficient by utilizing both heat and power outputs locally (including for cooling).

Distributed electricity systems can help reduce transmission losses and offset the high investment costs of upgrading distribution networks that are close to full capacity.

More energy-efficient technologies can also improve supply security by reducing future energy-supply demands and any associated GHG emissions. However, the present adoption path for these, together with low- and zero-carbon supply technologies, as shown by business-as-usual baseline scenarios, will not reduce emissions significantly.

The transition from surplus fossil fuel resources to constrained gas and oil carriers, and subsequently to new energy supply and conversion technologies, has begun. However it faces regulatory and acceptance barriers to rapid implementation and market competition alone may not lead to reduced GHG emissions. The energy systems of many nations are evolving from their historic dependence on fossil fuels in response to the climate change threat, market failure of the supply chain, and increasing reliance on global energy markets, thereby necessitating the wiser use of energy in all sectors. A rapid transition toward new energy supply systems with reduced carbon intensity needs to be managed to minimize economic, social and technological risks and to co-opt those stakeholders who retain strong interests in maintaining the status quo. The electricity, building and industry sectors are beginning to become more proactive and help governments make the transition happen. Sustainable energy systems emerging as a result of government, business and private interactions should not be selected on cost and GHG mitigation potential alone but also on their other co-benefits.

Innovative supply-side technologies, on becoming fully commercial, may enhance access to clean energy, improve energy security and promote environmental protection at local, regional and global levels. They include thermal power plant designs based on gasification; combined cycle and super-critical boilers using natural gas as a bridging fuel; the further development and uptake of CCS; second-generation renewable energy systems; and advanced nuclear technologies. More efficient energy supply technologies such as these are best combined with improved end-use efficiency technologies to give a closer matching of energy supply with demand in order to reduce both losses and GHG emissions.

Energy services are fundamental to achieving sustainable development. In many developing countries, provision of adequate, affordable and reliable energy services has been insufficient to reduce poverty and improve standards of living. To provide such energy services for everyone in an environmentally sound way will require major investments in the energy-supply chain, conversion technologies and infrastructure (particularly in rural areas) (high agreement, much evidence).

There is no single economic technical solution to reduce GHG emissions from the energy sector. There is however good mitigation potential available based on several zero-or low-carbon commercial options ready for increased deployment at costs below 20 US$/tCO₂ avoided or under research development. The future choice of supply technologies will depend on the timing of successful developments for advanced nuclear, advanced coal and gas, and second-generation renewable energy technologies. Other technologies, such as CCS, second-generation biofuels, concentrated solar power, ocean energy and biomass gasification, may make additional contributions in due course. The necessary transition will involve more sustained public and private investment in research, development, demonstration and deployment (RD³) to better understand our energy resources, to further develop cost-effective and -efficient low- or zero-carbon emitting technologies, and to encourage their rapid deployment and diffusion. Research investment in energy has varied greatly from country to country, but in most cases has declined significantly in recent years since the levels achieved soon after the oil shocks during the 1970s.

Using the wide range of available low- and zero-carbon technologies (including large hydro, bioenergy, other renewables, nuclear and CCS together with improved power-plant efficiency and fuel switching from coal to gas), the total mitigation potential by 2030 for the electricity sector alone, at carbon prices below 20 US$/tCO₂-eq, ranges between 2.0 and 4.2 GtCO₂-eq/yr. At the high end of this range, the over 70% share of fossil fuel-based power generation in the baseline drops to 55% of the total. Developing countries could provide around half of this potential. This range corresponds well with the TAR analysis potential of 1.3–2.5 GtCO₂-eq/yr at 27 US$/tCO₂-eq avoided, given that the TAR was only up to 2020 and that, since it was published in 2001, there has been an increase in development and deployment of renewable energy technologies, a better understanding of CCS techniques and a greater acceptance of improved designs of nuclear power plants.

For investment costs up to 50 US$/tCO₂-eq, the total mitigation potential by 2030 rises to between 3.0 and 6.4 GtCO₂-eq/yr avoided. Up to 100 US$/tCO₂-eq avoided, the total potential is between 4.0 and 7.2 GtCO₂-eq/yr, mainly coming from non-OECD/EIT countries (medium agreement, limited evidence).

There is high agreement in the projections that global energy supply will continue to grow and in the types of energy likely to be used by 2030. However, there is only medium confidence in the regional energy demand assumptions and the future mix of conversion technologies to be used. Overall, the future costs and technical potentials identified should provide a reasonable basis for considering strategies and decisions over the next several decades.

No single policy instrument will ensure the desired transition to a future secure and decarbonized world. Policies will need to be regionally specific and both energy and non-energy co-benefits should be taken into account. Internalizing environmental costs requires development of policy initiatives, long-term vision and leadership based on sound science and economic analysis. Effective policies supporting energy-supply technology development and deployment are crucial to the uptake of low-carbon emission systems and should be regionally specific. A range of policies is already in place to encourage the development and deployment of low-carbon-emitting technologies in OECD countries as well as in non-OECD countries including Brazil, Mexico, China and India. Policies in several countries have resulted in the successful implementation of renewable energy systems to give proven benefits linked with energy access, distributed energy, health, equity and sustainable development. Nuclear energy policies are also receiving renewed attention. However, the consumption of fossil fuels, at times heavily subsidized by governments, will remain dominant in all regions to meet ever-increasing energy demands unless future policies take into account the full costs of environmental, climate change and health issues resulting from their use.

Energy sector reform is critical to sustainable energy development and includes reviewing and reforming subsidies, establishing credible regulatory frameworks, developing policy environments through regulatory interventions, and creating market-based approaches such as emissions trading. Energy security has recently become an important policy driver. Privatization of the electricity sector has secured energy supply and provided cheaper energy services in some countries in the short term, but has led to contrary effects elsewhere due to increasing competition, which, in turn, leads to deferred investments in plant and infrastructure due to longer-term uncertainties. In developed countries, reliance on only a few suppliers, and threats of natural disasters, terrorist attacks and future uncertainty about imported energy supplies add to the concerns. For developing countries lack of security and higher world-energy prices constrain endeavours to accelerate access to modern energy services that would help to decrease poverty, improve health, increase productivity, enhance competition and thus improve their economies (high agreement, much evidence).

In short, the world is not on course to achieve a sustainable energy future. The global energy supply will continue to be dominated by fossil fuels for several decades. To reduce the resultant GHG emissions will require a transition to zero- and low-carbon technologies. This can happen over time as business opportunities and co-benefits are identified. However, more rapid deployment of zero- and low-carbon technologies will require policy intervention with respect to the complex and interrelated issues of: security of energy supply; removal of structural advantages for fossil fuels; minimizing related environmental impacts, and achieving the goals for sustainable development.