IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
Climate Change 2007: Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change

5.4.2.4 Totals

The estimates discussed above can be summarized as follows:

Light-duty vehicles:

718–766 MtCO2 at carbon prices less than 100 US$/tCO2

689–718 MtCO2 at carbon prices less than 50 US$/tCO2

669–718 MtCO2 at carbon prices less than 20 US$/tCO2

369–697 MtCO2 at carbon prices less than 0 US$/tCO2

Aircraft:

150 MtCO2 at carbon prices less than 50 US$/tCO2

280 MtCO2 at carbon prices less than 100 US$/tCO2

Biofuels:

600–1500 MtCO2 at carbon prices less than 25 US$/tCO2

Although presumably the potential for biofuels penetration would be higher above the cited 25 US$/tCO2 carbon price, the total potential for a carbon price of 100 US$/tCO2 for the three mitigation sources is about 1600–2550 MtCO2. Much of this potential appears to be located in OECD North America and Europe. Note, however, that the potential is measured as the ‘further’ reduction in CO2 emissions from the Reference scenario, which assumes that substantial amounts of biofuels will be produced in Brazil and elsewhere and significant improvements in fuel efficiency will occur in China and in other industrializing nations without further policy measures.