6.3 Scenarios of carbon emissions resulting from energy use in buildings

Figure 6.2 shows the results for the buildings sector of disaggregating two of the emissions scenarios produced for the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (IPCC, 2000), Scenarios A1B and B2, into ten world regions (Price et al., 2006). These scenarios show a range of projected buildings related CO₂ emissions (including through the use of electricity): from 8.6 GtCO₂ emissions in 2004 to 11.4 and 15.6 GtCO₂ emissions in 2030 (B2 and A1B respectively), representing an approximately 30% share of total CO₂ emissions in both scenarios. In Scenario B2, which has lower economic growth, especially in the developing world (except China), two regions account for the largest portion of increased CO₂ emissions from 2004 to 2030: North America and Developing Asia. In Scenario A1B (which shows rapid economic growth, especially in developing nations), all of the increase in CO₂ emissions occurs in the developing world: Developing Asia, Middle East/North Africa, Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, in that order. Overall, average annual CO₂ emissions growth is 1.5% in Scenario B2 and 2.4% in Scenario A1B over the 26-year period.

Figure 6.2: CO₂ emissions including through the use of electricity: A1B (top) and B2 (bottom) IPCC (SRES) scenarios

Note: Dark red – historic emissions 1971–2000 based on Price et al. (2006) modifications of IEA data. Light red – projections 2001–2030 data based on Price et al. (2006) disaggregation of SRES data; 2000–2010 data adjusted to actual 2000 carbon dioxide emissions. EECCA = Countries of Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia.

For the purpose of estimating the CO₂ mitigation potential in buildings, a baseline was derived based on the review of several studies. This baseline represents an aggregation of national and regional baselines reported in the studies (see Box 6.1). The building sector baseline derived and used in this chapter shows emissions between the B2 and A1B (SRES) scenarios, with 11.1 Gt of CO₂-eq emissions in 2020 and 14.3 Gt in 2030 (including electricity emissions).