8.10 Long-term outlook

Trends in GHG emissions in the agricultural sector depend mainly on the level and rate of socio-economic development, human population growth, and diet, application of adequate technologies, climate and non-climate policies, and future climate change. Consequently, mitigation potentials in the agricultural sector are uncertain, making a consensus difficult to achieve and hindering policy making. However, agriculture is a significant contributor to GHG emissions (Section 8.2). Mitigation is unlikely to occur without action, and higher emissions are projected in the future if current trends are left unconstrained. According to current projections, the global population will reach 9 billion by 2050, an increase of about 50% over current levels (Lutz et al., 2001; Cohen, 2003). Because of these increases and changing consumption patterns, some analyses estimate that the production of cereals will need to roughly double in coming decades (Tilman et al., 2001; Roy et al., 2002; Green et al., 2005). Achieving these increases in food production may require more use of N fertilizer, leading to possible increases in N₂O emissions, unless more efficient fertilization techniques and products can be found (Galloway, 2003; Mosier, 2002). Greater demands for food could also increase CH₄ emissions from enteric fermentation if livestock numbers increase in response to demands for meat and other livestock products. As projected by the IMAGE 2.2 model, CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O emissions associated with land use vary greatly between scenarios (Strengers et al., 2004), depending on trends towards globalization or regionalization, and on the emphasis placed on material wealth relative to sustainability and equity.

Some countries are moving forward with climate and non-climate policies, particularly those linked with sustainable development and improving environmental quality as described in Sections 8.6 and 8.7. These policies will likely have direct or synergistic effects on GHG emissions and provide a way forward for mitigation in the agricultural sector. Moreover, global sharing of innovative technologies for efficient use of land resources and agricultural inputs, in an effort to eliminate poverty and malnutrition, will also enhance the likelihood of significant mitigation from the agricultural sector.

Mitigation of GHG emissions associated with various agricultural activities and soil carbon sequestration could be achieved through best management practices, many of which are currently available for implementation. Best management practices are not only essential for mitigating GHG emissions, but also for other facets of environmental protection such as air and water quality management. Uncertainties do exist, but they can be reduced through finer scale assessments of best management practices within countries, evaluating not only the GHG mitigation potential but also the influences of mitigation options on socio-economic conditions and other environmental impacts.

The long-term outlook for development of mitigation practices for livestock systems is encouraging. Continuous improvements in animal breeds are likely, and these will improve the GHG emissions per kg of animal product. Enhanced production efficiency due to structural change or better application of existing technologies is also generally associated with reduced emissions, and there is a trend towards increased efficiency in both developed and developing countries. New technologies may emerge to reduce emissions from livestock such as probiotics, a methane vaccine or methane inhibitors. However, increased world demand for animal products may mean that while emissions per kg of product decline, total emissions may increase.

Recycling of agricultural by-products, such as crop residues and animal manures, and production of energy crops provides opportunities for direct mitigation of GHG emissions from fossil fuel offsets. However, there are barriers in technologies and economics to using agricultural wastes, and in converting energy crops into commercial fuels. The development of innovative technologies is a critical factor in realizing the potential for biofuel production from agricultural wastes and energy crops. This mitigation option could be moved forward with government investment for the development of these technologies, and subsidies for using these forms of energy.

A number of agricultural mitigation options which have limited potential now will likely have increased potential in the long-term. Examples include better use of fertilizer through precision farming, wider use of slow and controlled release fertilizers and of nitrification inhibitors, and other practices that reduce N application (and thus N₂O emissions). Similarly, enhanced N-use efficiency is achievable as technologies such as field diagnostics, fertilizer recommendations from expert/decision support systems and fertilizer placement technologies are developed and more widely used. New fertilizers and water management systems in paddy rice are also likely in the longer term.

Possible changes to climate and atmosphere in coming decades may influence GHG emissions from agriculture, and the effectiveness of practices adopted to minimize them. For example, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, likely to double within the next century, may affect agro-ecosystems through changes in plant growth rates, plant litter composition, drought tolerance, and nitrogen demands (e.g., Long et al., 2006; Henry et al., 2005; Van Groenigen et al., 2005; Jensen and Christensen, 2004; Torbert et al., 2000; Norby et al., 2001). Similarly, atmospheric nitrogen deposition also affects crop production systems as well as changing temperature regimes, although the effect will depend on the magnitude of change and response of the crop, forage, or livestock species. For example, increasing temperatures are likely to have a positive effect on crop production in colder regions due to a longer growing season (Smith et al., 2005b). In contrast, increasing temperatures could accelerate decomposition of soil organic matter, releasing stored soil carbon into the atmosphere (Knorr et al., 2005; Fang et al., 2005; Smith et al. 2005b). Furthermore, changes in precipitation patterns could change the adaptability of crops or cropping systems selected to reduce GHG emissions. Many of these effects have high levels of uncertainty; but demonstrate that practices chosen to reduce GHG emissions may not have the same effectiveness in coming decades. Consequently, programmes to reduce emissions in the agricultural sector will need to be designed with flexibility for adaptation in response to climate change.

Overall, the outlook for GHG mitigation in agriculture suggests significant potential. Current initiatives suggest that identifying synergies between climate change policies, sustainable development, and improvement of environmental quality will likely lead the way forward to realization of mitigation potential in this sector.