Report by UK

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 25 , Line 34
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but there is a danger that adaptation is at the cost of mitigation - is this a message we wish to be communicating - think of the implications!
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 25 , Line 36 To Page 25 , Line 40
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The two references in this sentence to geoengineering sit rather uneasily without further explanation and qualification; it reads very much as though they have been added in parentheses as place holders. If reference to geoengineering is to remain in this section, then it would be important to qualify that its full implications and effectiveness as a social-policy alternative or addition to mitigation or adaptation is not known
View full comment by David Santillo...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 25 , Line 33 To Page 25 , Line 34
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"More countries are rightly focussing on adaptation" sounds policy prescriptive
View full comment by Stephen Smith...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 25 , Line 29
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see point 23
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 25 , Line 25 To Page 25 , Line 26
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why not reference Jevons to the rebound effect?
View full comment by Michael Jefferson...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 25 , Line 23
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see point 23
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 25 , Line 16
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Should also mention changes in consumption patterns. That is a potentially important margin of adjustment.
View full comment by Alexander Bowen...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 25 , Line 13 To Page 25 , Line 15
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current Intellectual Property system is a deterrent.
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 24 , Line 29 To Page 25 , Line 15
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Logical tension between discussion of 'promising options for reducing emissions involve changes in behaviour' and 'without radical technology innovation deep reductions are not possible by 2050' should be clear; however, to illustrate - if changes in behaviour mean radical reduction in consumption of fossil fuels are achieved without technological change then innovation, though potentially welcome, is not essential. The history of technological innovations such as CFCs sugges
View full comment by Mark Charlesworth...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 24 , Line 16 To Page 24 , Line 18
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fools gold?
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 23 , Line 1 To Page 23 , Line 2
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The threshold of $1 per day has been revised by the World Bank to $1.25 per day for the definition of absolute poverty
View full comment by Andy Haines...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 23 , Line 4 To Page 23 , Line 7
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This section mentions the MDGs and refers to the recent Rio+20 agreement. My comment is that it was agreed at Rio+20 (paragraphs 245-251) that a set of "Sustainable Development Goals" will be developed. I think that this should be mentioned in WGIII report, as I think this will be an important way that nations will be delivering truly sustainable development and so mitigation strategies post 2015. The document says that the SDG's should be "action oriented, concise and easy
View full comment by Sue Riddlestone...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 23 , Line 31
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essential to factor in understanding of feedbacks in forecasts!
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 23 , Line 23
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please highlight "risk management under uncertainty" (its crucial)
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 23 , Line 22 To Page 24 , Line 34
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Little consideration of the implications for (mitigation) policy of the uncertainties and difficulties of prediction of the consequences of climate change. Charlesworth M & Okereke C (2010, Policy responses to rapid climate change: An epistemological critique of dominant approaches, Global Environ. Change, 20:121-129, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.09.001) provides some pointers, the most obvious being precaution.
View full comment by Mark Charlesworth...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 23 , Line 19
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why is 'equity' difficult?
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 23 , Line 15
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The difficulties are well illustrated in the discussion of US CBA guidelines in Dietz, S (2012). 'The Treatment of Risk and Uncertainty in the US Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis' Economics The Open-Access Open-Assessment E Journal Vol. 6, 2012-18. http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2012-18
View full comment by Alexander Bowen...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 23 , Line 11
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compare with 'growth'
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 21 , Line 3 To Page 21 , Line 5
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this too seems good policy!
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 21 , Line 10
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An important issue that should be mentioned here is that national planning aspirations often envisage more rapid growth than do the BAU modelling assumptions. If the planners are right, then the outlook is more difficult still. As the Blanford et al piece in EMF22 suggests, it is not clear that BAU projections have taken on board the rapid growth of Asia since the 1990s.
View full comment by Alexander Bowen...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 20 , Line 26 To Page 20 , Line 28
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this seems most obvious?
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 18 , Line 19 To Page 18 , Line 20
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Something being both costly and highly beneficial needs a bit more explaining!
View full comment by Stephen Smith...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 17 , Line 33
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Why 'ultimately to the same level'? I would expect differing natural endowments to mean that there are always likely to be differences.
View full comment by Alexander Bowen...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 17 , Line 32
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not quite seeing the point here - does central planning result in fewer emissions or vice versa?
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 17 , Line 23 To Page 17 , Line 24
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see point 13
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 17 , Line 15
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it is worth pointing out that reduced growth (the "credit crunch") is proportional to lower emissions - see point 5
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 16 , Line 30 To Page 16 , Line 30
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There is a reference to a Figure 1.6 here that is not the actual Figure 1.6 in the draft (properly referenced on p17 line 8). I suspect there is a missing chart...
View full comment by Stephen Smith...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 16 , Line 19
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How are the regions defined?
View full comment by Alexander Bowen...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 15 , Line 7 To Page 15 , Line 10
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Little evidence is given here or in the rest of the chapter to support the claim that there has been substantially more effort to mitigate soot and methane (the Shindell Science paper does not discuss past trends, only future mitigation; the full UNEP report has a brief discussion of trends but only ozone precursors show much decline in the charts there).
View full comment by Stephen Smith...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 15 , Line 12 To Page 15 , Line 12
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Given the importance of global GHG emissions data, it would be helpful if the authors provided pointers to some of the other sources out there (e.g. WRI CAIT, UNFCCC). There could even be a box listing these sources and comparing their different characteristics (sectoral coverage, temporal coverage, estimated uncertainties, etc.)
View full comment by Stephen Smith...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 14 , Line 37 To Page 14 , Line 38
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see point 7
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 14 , Line 28 To Page 14 , Line 30
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contradicting Article 2
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 14 , Line 23
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Perhaps worth mentioning that the 2degC ceiling was endorsed at Cancun.
View full comment by Alexander Bowen...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 14 , Line 16 To Page 14 , Line 18
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If the agreement L'Aquila specifically referred to 2 degrees being a "scientific view" then this text should be placed in quotation marks, like the COP15 text. Otherwise these words should not be used, as it sounds like the IPCC authors are endorsing the idea of 2 degrees as the logical scientific interpretation of Article 2.
View full comment by Stephen Smith...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 13 , Line 7 To Page 13 , Line 11
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a little speculative given the state of current research? I.e. 'could' with what degree of certainty?
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 13 , Line 28
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"adapt naturally" is interesting vis-à-vis 'geo-engineering'
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 13 , Line 12
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is this meaningful given the complexity of interactions?
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 12 , Line 13 To Page 12 , Line 38
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of interest but not mention of conflict resolution per se - see Ramsbotham et al (2011) "Contemporary Conflict Resolution", Chapter 12, 2011. Available at http://www.polity.co.uk/ccr/authors/woodhouse.asp accessed 13/9/12.
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 11 , Line 9
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The benefits of carbon pricing might be mentioned in this context.
View full comment by Alexander Bowen...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 11 , Line 9 To Page 11 , Line 15
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what is the temporal scale used here for energy investment?
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 10 , Line 35 To Page 10 , Line 36
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particular reference could be made to the absurdity (e.g. under UK Planning Guidance PPS 22 and definitions of the UK Planning Inspectorate) of defining palm oil as a renewable source of energy for simply burning in proposed electricity generating plants EVEN WHEN THE ASSOCIATED CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, HABITAT & SPECIES LOSS ARE POINTED OUT, WITH REFERENCES.
View full comment by Michael Jefferson...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 10 , Line 15 To Page 10 , Line 15
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mid-2011 - update here and elsewhere.
View full comment by Michael Jefferson...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 0
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Chapter 15 argues that the subnational governance level is important and that innovation is not just about technology but about situated sociotechnical systems. For example on Chap 15 p64 it is stated that ‘Cities have become a critical site for the mobilisation of climate mitigation policy’ and that ‘new logics and practices for urban development’ can realise climate change objectives ‘achieving widespread ‘transitions’ to low carbon urban development’ Thes
View full comment by Fred Steward...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 0
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The overall “tone” emerging in chapter 1 is pessimistic. This would reflect reasonable judgement – particularly viewed from a North American or ‘current global trends’ perspective - but I think should be more cautious (see some of specific comments below); history is marked by discontinuities. It looks like the language on 2 deg.C has already been quite carefully crafted (“the current trajectory is inconsistent..”), but it is important that the overall messag
View full comment by Michael Grubb...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 0
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A well written and professional chapter; however its exact role in relation to the full report and depth of connection to its contents is unclear, and it does have some specific problems. Focusing on the “six arguments” feels a bit unusual for an introductory chapter – but it’s a lot better than anodyne summary so I would incline to keep it.
View full comment by Michael Grubb...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter:
UK
Short-lived forcings (especially methane, ozone and black carbon) are a hot policy topic given the recent UNEP report and the formation of the Climate & Clean Air Coalition. I am not sure that this section - plus the reference to a slightly obscure section of the transport chapter - contains sufficient detail and perspective given its policy relevance. For instance, it does not cite Shindell et a. (2012) ""Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Huma
View full comment by Stephen Smith...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter:
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Show 2100 chart from Unger as well, to demonstrate how importance of emissions depends on time horizon? Although this is shown in Figure 8.2.1, I'm not sure that readers of the current draft would go to the transport chapter to find it.
View full comment by Stephen Smith...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 25 , Line 28
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The rebound effect is unlikely to be affected much by education - surely a better approach is likely to be a carbon tax or similar mechanism
View full comment by Andy Haines...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 25
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There should be discussion of policies which combine both mitigation and adaptation e.g. Land use policies which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change and greenhouse gas emissions or housing policies which combine both perspectives
View full comment by Andy Haines...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 3 To Page 4
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Six interesting points, unfortunate that the main chapter then quickly dives into “six major changes” (in section 1.2.1); this could be confusing for readers. I think there could be additions to either list. Regarding the “six arguments” in Exec Sum could consider a seventh, an observation along the following lines: This Fifth Assessment – and the more recent literature it draws upon – has been compiled during a period of unprecedented transition in global aff
View full comment by Michael Grubb...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 3 , Line 29
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Should add 'patterns of consumption.'
View full comment by Alexander Bowen...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 3 , Line 47 To Page 4 , Line 2
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Should also mention the demand side - energy efficiency and changes in consumption patterns are also important.
View full comment by Alexander Bowen...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 4 , Line 35 To Page 4 , Line 36
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Good!
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 4 , Line 35
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Could also mention World Bank (2012). 'Inclusive Green Growth: The Pathway to Sustainable Development' World Bank, Washington DC.
View full comment by Alexander Bowen...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 4 , Line 47
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mention of nuclear may be contentious?
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 4 , Line 9
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Should also add 'economic growth.'
View full comment by Alexander Bowen...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 4 , Line 25 To Page 4 , Line 25
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It currently defines Mitigation as "the effort to control the fundamental sources of climate change". Perhaps it should be emphasised that the primary focus of mitigation is to control the fundamental anthropogenic sources of climate change, with geo-engineering of naturall climate drivers a last resort (which is not to say that there shouldn't be geo-engineering research in preparation).
View full comment by Michael O'Brien...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 4 , Line 14 To Page 4 , Line 15
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There should be mention of co-benefits of mitigation strategies at this point particularly health co-benefits. See for example Haines A, McMichael AJ, Smith KR, Roberts I, Woodcock J, Markandya A, Armstrong BG, Campbell-Lendrum D, Dangour AD, Davies M, Bruce N, Tonne C, Barrett M, Wilkinson P. Public Health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions: overview and implications for policy makers. Lancet 2009; 374:2104-14. Also the WHO series of papers on health i
View full comment by Andy Haines...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 5 , Line 14 To Page 5 , Line 15
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together with achieving social equity (e.g. see UNESCO)
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 5
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I think that the increased recognition of climate change co-benefits including to health is an additional development since AR4 and should be added at this stage to the other 6 climate change mitigation strategies
View full comment by Andy Haines...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 5 , Line 33 To Page 5 , Line 33
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Not just health care improvement but more broadly health improvement since many determinants of health lie outside the healthcare system
View full comment by Andy Haines...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 6 , Line 40
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The macroeconomic narrative makes sense to me but covers some potentially controversial topics. There are, for example, differing views on the relative importance of financial system factors (such as poor regulation) and of saving behaviour (e.g. excessively low saving rates in rhe USA, excessively high ones in China). I would suggest shortening this section substantially and keeping away from discussing the causes of the macroeconomic crisis. This is not the place to try
View full comment by Alexander Bowen...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 6 , Line 43 To Page 6 , Line 43
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Delete reference to Sornette & Woodward - too obvious a fact, large body of literature.
View full comment by Michael Jefferson...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 7 , Line 16
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Euro area is large compared with, for example, the UK, is is a fair comparison?
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 7 , Line 16
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No African or Middle Eastern country mentioned?
View full comment by Alexander Bowen...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 7 , Line 28 To Page 7 , Line 29
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Where climate change mitigations have been linked to...
View full comment by Andy Haines...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 8 , Line 12
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Asian countries' policies with respect to building up foreign exchange reserves were also important. If global imbalances are to be discussed, they should not be ignored. But perhaps the whole issue could be put aside.
View full comment by Alexander Bowen...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 8 , Line 13
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This is an example of a potentially controversial statement that is not necessary in this context. For a different view, see Bowen, A, and K Mayhew (2008). 'Globalisation, import prices and inflation: How reliable are the 'tailwinds'?' Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Q3, London.
View full comment by Alexander Bowen...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 9 , Line 1
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Also, general technical progress that enhances energy efficiency is likely to be slowed. See Bowen, A, e t al (2009): 'The implications of the economic slowdown for greenhouse gas emissions and targets,' CCCEP Policy Paper, LSE, October.
View full comment by Alexander Bowen...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 9 , Line 14
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this notion of 'development' needs to be broken down - what is 'progress' for example?
View full comment by Timothy Barker...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 9 , Line 33 To Page 9 , Line 34
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Has there really been inadequate investment in exploration and extraction capacity for conventional sources of gas and oil? Isn't the increased exploitation of unconventional sources an indicator that these are more productive in conventional terms than conventional sources? Surely the main lack of investments is in low carbon sources of energy?
View full comment by Andy Haines...

First Order Draft, Introductory Chapter: From Page 9 , Line 44 To Page 9 , Line 44
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unconventional oil and gas.
View full comment by Michael Jefferson...

Breakdown for UK