| Table 6- 2a: Overview
of main driving forces for the four SRES marker scenarios for 2100 if not
indicated otherwise. Numbers in brackets show the range across all other
scenarios from the same scenario family as the marker. Units are given in
the table. (IND regions includes industrialized countries consisting of
OECD90 and REF regions; and DEV region includes developing countries consisting
of ASIA and ALM regions, see Appendix IV). |
|
| |
Population
In Billion |
Economic Growth,
GDP mexa |
Per Capita Income,
GDP mex /capita |
Primary Energy Use |
Hydrocarbon
Resource Use b |
Land- Use Change c |
|
| A1 |
Lutz (1996)
Low
~7 billion
1.4 IND
5.6 DEV |
Very high
1990- 2020: 3.3 (2.8- 3.6)
1990- 2050: 3.6 (2.9- 3.7)
1990- 2100: 2.9 (2.5- 3.0) |
Very high
in IND:
US$ 107,300 (60,300- 113,500)
in DEV:
US$ 66,500 (41,400- 69,800) |
Very high
2.226 (1,002- 2,683) EJ
Low energy intensity of
4.2 MJ/ US$
(1.9- 5.1) |
Varied in four scenario groups:
Oil: Low to very high
20.8 (11.5- 50.8) ZJ
Gas: High to very high
42.2 (19.7- 54.9) ZJ Coal: Medium to very high
15.9 (4.4- 68.3) ZJ |
Low.
1990- 2100:
3% cropland,
6% grasslands
2% forests |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| A2 |
Lutz (1996)
High
~15 billion
2.2 IND
12.9 DEV |
Medium
1990- 2020: 2.2 (2.0- 2.6)
1990- 2050: 2.3 (1.7- 2.8)
1990- 2100: 2.3 (2.0- 2.3) |
Low in DEV
Medium in IND
in IND:
US$ 46,200 (37,100- 64,500)
in DEV:
US$ 11,000 (10,300- 13,700) |
High
1,717 (1,304- 2.040) EJ
High energy intensity of
7.1 MJ/ US$
(5.2- 8.9) |
Scenario dependent: Oil: Very low to medium
17.3 (11.0- 22.5) ZJ
Gas: Low to high
24.6 (18.4- 35.5) ZJ
Coal: Medium to Very high
46.8 (20.1- 47.7) ZJ |
Medium
n. a. from ASF |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| B1 |
Lutz (1996)
Low
~7 billion
1.4 IND
5.7 DEV |
High
1990- 2020: 3.1 (2.9- 3.3)
1990- 2050: 3.1 (2.9- 3.5)
1990- 2100: 2.5 (2.5- 2.6) |
High
in IND:
US$ 72,800 (65,300- 77,700)
In DEV:
US$ 40,200 (40,200- 45,200) |
Low.
514 (514- 1,157) EJ
Very low energy intensity of
1.6 EJ/ US$ (1.6- 3.4) |
Scenario dependent:
Oil: Very low to high 19.6 (15.7- 19.6) ZJ
Gas: Medium to high 14.7 (14.7- 31.8) ZJ
Coal: Very low to high 13.2 (3.3- 27.2) ZJ |
High
1990- 2100:
-28% cropland
-45% grassland
+30% forests |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| B2 |
UN (1998)
Median
~10 billion
1.3 IND
9.1 DEV |
Medium
1990- 2020: 3.0 (2.2- 3.1)
1990- 2050: 2.8 (2.1- 2.9)
1990- 2100: 2.2 (2.0- 2.3) |
Medium
in IND:
US$ 54,400 (42,400- 61,100)
In DEV:
US$ 18,000 (14,200- 21,500) |
Medium
1,357 (846- 1,625) EJ
Medium energy intensity of 5.8 MJ/ US$ (4.3- 6.5) |
Oil: Low to medium
19.5 (11.2- 22.7) ZJ by 2100
Gas: Low to medium
26.9 (17.9- 26.9) ZJ by 2100
Coal: Low to very high
12.6 (12.6- 44.4) ZJ by 2100 |
Medium
1990- 2100:
+22% cropland
+9% grasslands
+5% forests d |
|
a Exponential growth rates after World Bank (1999) method
(given on pages 371 to 372) are calculated using the different base years
from the models.
b Resource availability is generally combined with scenario specific rates
of technological change.
c Residual and other land- use categories are not shown in the Table.
d Land- use data for B2 marker taken from AIM land- use B2 scenario run. |
| Table 6- 2b: Overview of GHG,
ozone precursors and sulfur emissions (standardized) for the four SRES scenario
families and seven scenario groups for 2100. Numbers are for the four markers,
the two additional illustrative A1FI and A1T scenarios (A1G and A1C are
combined into one fossil- intensive scenario group A1FI in the SPM, A1FI
is from the A1G group), and (in brackets) for the range across all scenarios
within the same scenario group 1 . Range of SRES scenarios are also compared
to the range from the IS92 scenarios. Units are given in the table. |
|
|
CO2
(GtC) |
CH4
(Mt CH4) |
N2O
(MtN) |
CFC, HCFC,
HFC, PFC,
SF6
(MtC equiv.) a |
CO
(Mt CO) |
NMVOCs
(Mt) |
NOx
(MtN) |
SOx
(MtS) |
|
| A1B |
Medium
13.5 (13.5- 17.9) |
Low
289 (289- 640) |
Medium
7.0 (5.8- 17.2) |
Medium
Total of 824 |
Medium
1663 (1080- 2532) |
Medium
194 (133- 552) |
Medium
40.2 (40.2- 77.0) |
Low
28 (26- 71) |
| A1C |
High
(25.9- 36.7) |
Medium
(392- 693) |
Medium
(6.1- 16.2) |
as A1 |
High
(2298- 3766) |
Medium
(167- 373) |
High
(63.3 -151.4) |
High
(27- 83) |
| A1G |
High
28.2 (28.2- 30.8) |
Medium
735 (289- 735) |
Medium
16.6 (5.9- 16.6) |
as A1 |
High
2570 (3260- 3666) |
Medium
420 (192- 484) |
High
110 (39.9 -132.7) |
Low
40 (27- 41) |
| A1T |
Low
4.3 (4.3- 9.1) |
Low
274 (274- 291) |
Low
5.4 (4.8- 5.4) |
as A1 |
Medium
2077 (1520- 2077) |
Low
128 (114 -128) |
Low
28 (28.1- 39.9) |
Very low
(20.2- 27.4) |
|
| A2 |
High
29.1 (19.6- 34.5) |
High
889 (549-1069) |
High
16.5 (8.1- 19.3) |
High
Total of 1096 |
High
2325 (776- 2646) |
High
342 (169- 342) |
Very high
109.2 (70.9- 110.0) |
High
60 (60.3- 93) |
|
| B1 |
Low
4.2 (2.7- 10.4) |
Low
236 (236- 579) |
Low
5.7 (5.3- 20.2) |
Low
Total of 386 |
Low
363 (363- 1871) |
Low
87 (58- 349) |
Low
18.7 (16.0- 35.0) |
Low
25 (11- 25) |
| B2 |
Medium
13.3 (10.8- 21.8) |
Medium
597 (465- 613) |
Medium
6.9 (6.9- 18.1) |
Medium
Total of 839 |
Medium
2002 (661- 2002) |
Medium
170 (130- 304) |
High
61.2 (34.5- 76.5) |
Low- Medium
48 (33- 48) |
|
| SRES |
2.7- 36.7 |
236- 1069 |
4.8- 20.2 |
386- 1096 |
363- 3766 |
58- 552 |
16- 151 |
11- 93 |
|
| IS92b |
4.6- 35.8 |
546- 1168 |
13.7- 19.1 |
746- 875 |
450- 929 |
136- 403 |
54- 134 |
55- 232 |
|
a Based on SAR GWPs. Emissions of ozone depleting
substances (CFCs, HCFCs) decline to zero by 2100, reflecting the Montreal
Protocol (WMO/ UNEP, 1998).
b Anthropogenic emissions only (i. e. excluding natural sources). |
| |
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| 1 Please note that in the Summary for Policymakers and the
Technical Summary additional information has been included on the ranges
for the harmonised scenarios only, as derived from the information in the
various tables in this report and its Appendices |