V.2. Data Collection
The main sources of data used in ESD were International Energy Workshop Polls
(Manne and Schrattenholzer, 1995, 1996, 1997), Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-14
comparison studies) data, the previous database compiled for the IPCC Supplement
Report, "Climate Change 1994" (Alcamo et al., 1995), which examined emission
scenarios produced prior to 1994, and individual emission scenarios collected
by the SRES writing team. The current database used in this report includes
the results of a total of 416 scenarios from 171 sources. Most of these scenarios
date after 1994.
Most of the total of 416 scenarios focus on energy-related CO2 emissions (256).
Only three models estimated land-use related emissions - the ASF model, the
IMAGE 2 model, and the AIM model. Very few scenarios considered global SO2 emissions.
The variables considered while collating scenario data, and the frequency with
which such they are found in the 416 scenarios (and thus stored in the SRES
database), are listed in Table V-2.
| Table V-2: List of Data Categories
in the 416 Scenario |
|
| Variable |
No. of Scenarios
|
Variable |
No. of Scenarios
|
|
|
| CO2 emissions |
372
|
Reduction in macro-economic consumption |
29
|
| Total primary energy consumption |
243
|
Oil primary energy consumption |
26
|
| GDP or GNP |
228
|
CH4 emissions |
25
|
| Electricity generation |
164
|
Coal |
29
|
| CO2 concentration |
161
|
Nuclear energy primary energy consumption |
24
|
| Temperature change |
140
|
Biomass energy production |
21
|
| Coal consumption |
107
|
Natural gas electricity generation |
20
|
| Oil consumption |
101
|
Global mean temperature increase |
20
|
| Control costs |
100
|
CO2 emissions from deforestation |
19
|
| Natural gas consumption |
99
|
CO2 emissions in industrial sector |
19
|
| CH4 concentration |
97
|
N2O emissions |
19
|
| Climate change costs |
97
|
CH4 emissions from animal wastes |
18
|
| Carbon tax |
96
|
CH4 emissions from biomass burning |
18
|
| Nuclear energy |
93
|
CH4 emissions from domestic sewage |
18
|
| Coal production |
93
|
CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation |
18
|
| Oil production |
92
|
CH4 emissions from landfills |
18
|
| Renewables, electric |
90
|
Coal primary energy consumption |
18
|
| Oil exports-imports |
88
|
N2O emissions from biomass burning |
18
|
| Renewables, nonelectric |
87
|
N2O emissions from land clearing |
18
|
| Natural gas production |
86
|
Total electricity generation |
16
|
| Natural gas exports-imports |
79
|
Other electricity generation |
14
|
| Coal exports-imports |
78
|
Final energy consumption in industry |
13
|
| Crude oil price, international |
77
|
Final energy consumption in residential and commercial |
13
|
| Coal/shale consumption |
70
|
Final energy consumption in transport |
13
|
| Total primary energy production |
66
|
NOx emissions |
13
|
| Sea level rise |
63
|
Autonomous Energy Efficiency Index |
13
|
| Sulfur emissions |
61
|
Biomass commercial production |
13
|
| Total fossil fuel consumption |
61
|
Electricity generation primary energy consumption |
13
|
| Population |
52
|
N2O concentration |
13
|
| Carbon intensity |
33
|
CH4 emissions from agricultural waste burning |
12
|
| Natural gas primary energy consumption |
32
|
CH4 emissions from deforestation |
12
|
| Energy intensity |
31
|
CH4 emissions from energy production |
12
|
| Carbon permits |
29
|
CH4 emissions from energy/industry |
12
|
| CO2 emissions fossil fuel |
29
|
CH4 emissions from industry |
12
|
| Incremental value of carbon permit/carbon tax |
29
|
CH4 emissions from nature |
12
|
| Natural gas |
29
|
CH4 emissions from savanna burning |
12
|
| Oil |
29
|
CH4 emissions from wet rice field |
12
|
|
|
Figure V-1: Example of an extraction screen, showing
the settings used to extract all information on all scenarios that are
generated with the AIM Japan source model and to examine global sea
level rise.
|
References
Alcamo, J., A. Bouwman, J. Edmonds, A. Grübler, T. Morita, and A. Sugandhy,
1995: An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios. In: Climate Change
1994, Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92
Emission Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 233-304.
Manne, A., and L. Schrattenholzer, 1995: International Energy Workshop
January 1995 Poll Edition. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria.
Manne, A., and L. Schrattenholzer, 1996, International Energy Workshop
January 1996 Poll Edition. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria.
Manne, A., and L. Schrattenholzer, 1997: International Energy Workshop,
Part I: Overview of Poll Responses, Part II: Frequency Distributions, Part III:
Individual Poll Responses, February, 1997, International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Morita, T., and H.-C. Lee, 1998: Appendix to Emissions Scenarios Database
and Review of Scenarios. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global
Change, 3(2-4), 121-131.
|