Figure 21: Analysis of inter-model
consistency in regional relative warming (warming relative to each model�s
global average warming). Regions are classified as showing either agreement on
warming in excess of 40% above the global average (‘Much greater than average
warming�), agreement on warming greater than the global average (‘Greater
than average warming�), agreement on warming less than the global average
(‘Less than average warming�), or disagreement amongst models on the
magnitude of regional relative warming (‘Inconsistent magnitude of warming�).
There is also a category for agreement on cooling (which never occurs). A consistent
result from at least seven of the nine models is deemed necessary for agreement.
The global annual average warming of the models used span 1.2 to 4.5°C for
A2 and 0.9 to 3.4°C for B2,
and therefore a regional 40% amplification represents warming ranges of 1.7 to
6.3°C for A2 and 1.3 to 4.7°C for B2.
[Based on Chapter 10, Box 1 , Figure
1]]
