Contents

1.1. Overview of the Assessment

1.2. What is Potentially at Stake?

1.2.1. Climatic Change Represents Opportunities and Risks for Human Development

1.2.1.1. Allow Ecosystems to Adapt Naturally to Climate Change
1.2.1.2. Ensure that Food Production is not Threatened
1.2.1.3. Enable Economic Development to Proceed in a Sustainable Manner

1.2.2. Human-Environment Systems: Implications for Development, Equity, and Sustainability

1.3. How has Society Responded?

1.3.1. International Responses
1.3.2. National and Local Governmental Responses
1.3.3. Organizational Responses
1.3.4. Adaptive Responses

1.4. How are Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessed in this Report?

1.4.1. Sensitivity, Adaptability, and Vulnerability
1.4.2. Detection and Attribution of Impacts to Climate Change
1.4.3. Key Determinants of Impacts

1.4.3.1. Magnitude of Change
1.4.3.2. Rate of Change
1.4.3.3. Transient Scenarios
1.4.3.4. Climate Variability and Extreme Events
1.4.3.5. Thresholds
1.4.3.6. Surprises
1.4.3.7. Nonlinear, Complex, and Discontinuous Responses

1.4.4. Synergies and Tradeoffs

1.4.4.1. Synergies and Tradeoffs between Climate Change and Other Environmental Issues
1.4.4.2. Synergies and Tradeoffs between Adaptation and Mitigation

1.4.5. Integrated Assessment

1.5. How do Complexities of Analysis Affect the Assessment?

1.5.1. Regional Climate Uncertainties
1.5.2. Socioeconomic Uncertainties
1.5.3. Risk and Uncertainty
1.5.4. Low-Probability Catastrophic Events
1.5.5. Valuation Methods—Monetary Measures or Multiple Numeraires
1.5.6. Damage Aggregation and Distributional Effects
1.5.7. Discounting
1.5.8. “Safe Emission Levels,” Cost-Effectiveness Analysis, and the Timing of Emission Abatement
1.5.9. Validation

1.6. How can this Assessment be Used to Address Policy-Relevant Questions? A Users’ Guide

1.6.1. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
1.6.2. Links to Biodiversity Loss, Desertification, Deforestation and Unsustainable Use of Forests, Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, and Other Global Environmental Issues
1.6.3. Resource Planners, Managers in National and Regional Institutions, and Actors in Specialized International Agencies

References

STEPHEN SCHNEIDER (USA) AND JOSE SARUKHAN (MEXICO)

Lead Authors:
J. Adejuwon (Nigeria), C. Azar (Sweden),W. Baethgen (Uruguay), C. Hope (UK), R. Moss (USA), N. Leary (USA), R. Richels (USA), J.-P. van Ypersele (Belgium)

Contributing Authors:
K. Kuntz-Duriseti (USA), R.N. Jones (Australia)

Review Editors:
J. Bruce (Canada) and B. Walker (Australia)

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