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17. Small Island States
Contents
Executive Summary
17.1. Regional Characteristics
17.1.1. Review of Previous Work
17.1.2. Special Circumstances of Small Islands
17.1.3. Past and Present Trends
17.1.4. Scenarios of Future Climate Change and Variability
17.1.4.1. Models Used
17.1.4.2. Region-Specific Model Validation
17.1.4.3. Climate Change Projections for Small Island States
17.1.4.3.1. Surface air temperature
17.1.4.3.2. Precipitation
17.1.4.3.3. Extreme high temperature and precipitation events
17.1.4.3.4. ENSO and precipitation variability
17.1.4.3.5. Tropical cyclones
17.2. Key Regional Concerns
17.2.1. Development, Sustainability, and Equity Issues
17.2.2. Water-Level Rise
17.2.2.1. Sea-Level Rise
17.2.2.2. Storm Surge and Flood Risks
17.2.3. Beach and Coastal Changes
17.2.3.1. Response, Adaptation, and Management
17.2.4. Coral Reefs, Mangroves, and Seagrasses
17.2.4.1. Coral Reefs
17.2.4.2. Mangroves
17.2.4.3. Seagrasses
17.2.5. Biodiversity of Islands
17.2.6. Water Resources
17.2.7. Tourism
17.2.8. Food Security
17.2.8.1. Crop Agriculture
17.2.8.2. Fisheries
17.2.9. Human Welfare
17.2.9.1. Settlement and Infrastructure
17.2.9.2. Human Health
17.2.10. Other Economic and Sociocultural Impacts
17.3 Vulnerability and Adaptation Potential
17.3.1. Setting the Context
17.3.2 Generic Issues
17.3.3. Vulnerability
17.3.4. Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity
17.3.5. Regional and External Factors
17.4. Synthesis
17.4.1. Feedbacks, Interactions, and Resilience: Relevance
of these Concepts to Small Islands
17.4.2. Uncertainties and Risks
17.4.2.1. Inconsistencies and Limitations in Projected Changes
17.4.2.2. Ecosystem Collapse
17.5. Future Requirements, Information, and Research Needs
References
LEONARD A. NURSE (BARBADOS) AND GRAHAM SEM (PAPUA NEW GUINEA)
Lead Authors:
J.E. Hay (New Zealand), A.G. Suarez (Cuba), Poh Poh Wong (Singapore), L. Briguglio
(Malta), S. Ragoonaden (Mauritius)
Contributing Authors:
A. Githeko (Kenya), J. Gregory (UK), V. Ittekkot (Germany), U. Kaly (Australia),
R. Klein (Germany/The Netherlands), M. Lal (India), A. McKenzie (Jamaica), H.
McLeod (UK), N. Mimura (Japan), J. Price (USA), Dahe Qin (China), B. Singh (Trinidad
and Tobago), P. Weech (The Bahamas)
Review Editors:
R. Payet (Seychelles) and S. Saeed (Maldives)
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