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19. Vulnerability to Climate Change and Reasons for Concern: A Synthesis
Contents
Executive Summary
19.1. Introduction
19.1.1. Reasons for Concern
19.1.2. Choice of Indicator
19.1.3. Role of Adaptation
19.1.4. Chapter Organization
19.2. Observations of Climate Change Impacts
19.2.1. Methods of Analysis
19.2.2. Synthesis of Observed Impacts
19.2.2.1. Hydrology
19.2.2.2. Terrestrial Ecosystems
19.2.2.2.1 Vegetation
19.2.2.2.2 Animals
19.2.2.3. Coastal Zones and Marine Ecosystems
19.2.2.3.1 Physical processes
19.2.2.3.2 Marine ecosystems
19.2.2.4. Socioeconomic Systems
19.2.2.4.1 Agriculture and commercial fisheries
19.2.2.4.2 Energy, industry, human settlements, and financial and insurance services
19.2.2.4.3 Human health
19.2.3. Conclusions
19.3. Impacts on Unique and Threatened Systems
19.3.1. What are Unique and Threatened Systems?
19.3.2. Physical Systems
19.3.2.1. Tropical Glaciers
19.3.3. Biological Systems
19.3.3.1. Risks to Species and Ecosystems
19.3.3.2. Biodiversity Hot Spots
19.3.3.3. Ecotones
19.3.3.4. Coral Reefs
19.3.3.5. Mangrove Ecosystems
19.3.4. Human Systems
19.3.4.1. Threatened Small Island States
19.3.4.2. Indigenous Communities
19.3.5. Conclusions
19.4. Distribution of Impacts
19.4.1. Analysis of Distributional Incidence: State of the Art
19.4.2. Distribution of Impacts by Sector
19.4.3. Distribution of Total Impacts
19.5. Aggregate Impacts
19.5.1. Aggregate Analysis: An Assessment
19.5.2. Insights and Lessons: The Static Picture
19.5.3. Insights and Lessons: Vulnerability over Time
19.5.4. Sensitivity of Aggregate Estimates
19.5.4.1. Composition of Impact Function
19.5.4.2. Shape of Damage Function
19.5.4.3. Rate of Change
19.5.4.4. Discount Rate and Time Horizon
19.5.4.5. Welfare Criteria
19.5.4.6. Treatment of Uncertainty
19.6. Extreme and Irreversible Effects
19.6.1. The Irregular Face of Climate Change
19.6.2. Characteristics of Singularities
19.6.3. Impacts of Climate Change Singularities
19.6.3.1. Extreme Weather Events
19.6.3.2. Large-Scale Singularities
19.6.3.2.1. Nonlinear response of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation
19.6.3.2.2. Disintegration of West Antarctic ice sheet
19.6.4. Climate Protection in an Irregular World
19.7. Limitations of Methods and Directions for Future
Research
19.7.1. Observations
19.7.2. Studies of Unique and Threatened Systems
19.7.3. Distributional Impacts
19.7.4. Aggregate Approaches
19.7.5. Integrated Assessment Frameworks
19.7.6. Extreme Events
19.7.7. Large-Scale Singular Events
19.7.8. Looking across Analytic Approaches
19.8. Conclusions
19.8.1. Observations
19.8.2. What does Each Reason for Concern Indicate?
19.8.2.1. Unique and Threatened Systems
19.8.2.2. Distributional Impacts
19.8.2.3. Aggregate Impacts
19.8.2.4. Extreme Climate Effects
19.8.2.5. Large-Scale Singularities
References
Joel B. Smith (USA), Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber (Germany), and M. Monirul Qader
Mirza (Bangladesh)
Lead Authors:
S. Fankhauser (Switzerland), R. Leemans (The Netherlands), Lin Erda (China),
L. Ogallo (Kenya), B. Pittock (Australia), R. Richels (USA), C. Rosenzweig (USA),
U. Safriel (Israel), R.S.J. Tol (The Netherlands), J. Weyant (USA), G. Yohe
(USA)
Contributing Authors:
W. Bond (South Africa), T. Bruckner (Germany), A. Iglesias (Spain), A.J. McMichael
(UK), C. Parmesan (USA), J. Price (USA), S. Rahmstorf (Germany), T. Root (USA),
T. Wigley (USA), K. Zickfeld (Germany)
Review Editors:
C. Hope (United Kingdom) and S.K. Sinha (India)
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