10.2.2.6. Adaptation Strategies
The nature and processes of human adaptation to long-range climate change are
poorly understood, especially in Africa (but see Chemane et al., 1997;
Vogel, 1998). Often, human responses are assumed, or assumed to be rational
with foresight and equity. Chapter 18, Smith and Lenhart
(1996), and Smithers and Smit (1997) provide overviews; national assessments
provide more detail.
A promising approach for much of Africa is to cope with current climate variability
through the use of seasonal climate forecasting (e.g., Mason et al.,
1996; Mattes and Mason, 1998; Washington et al., 1999; Dilley, 2000).
If farmers can adapt to current year-to-year variability through the use of
advance information on the future season's climate and institutional systems
are in place to respond to short-term changes (such as early warning systems),
communities will be in a position to adapt to longer term climate changes. For
example, a seasonal maize water-stress forecast for the primary maize-growing
regions of South Africa and Zimbabwe anticipates water stress 6 months prior
to harvest, with hindcast correlation over 16 seasons of 0.92 for South Africa
and 0.62 for Zimbabwe, based on correlations between water stress and historical
global SST and sea-level pressure records (Martin et al., 2000). Similar
forecasts are possible in other regions and for other crops; however, seasonal
forecasting by itself will not improve food security (e.g., Stack, 1998).
Better soil and water conservation practices, more tolerant crop varieties,
improved pest and weed control, and more use of irrigation also are needed to
adapt to changes in the weather. Omenda et al. (1998) recommend that in areas
predicted to have a decline in precipitation, research into the development
of maize varieties that are higher yielding, drought-resistant, early maturing,
and disease- and pest-tolerant is desirable. They further suggest that methods
of improving maize culture be studied, including use of inorganic fertilizers
and manure and changes in planting dates. Better adaptation to climate change
also will result from the use of improved technologies in agriculture—for
example, in irrigation and crop husbandry. It has been suggested (Pinstrum-Anderson
and Pandya-Lorch, 1999), for example, that by failing to capitalize on new opportunities
that biotechnology offers, SSA may further add to its food insecurity and poverty
problems.
Increased meat production can be achieved without massive expansion of area
grazed or size of the herds, by application of modern herd and animal diet management.
In many situations, this would require a cultural shift from regarding livestock
principally as an asset and symbol to regarding them as a production system.
Cow-calf systems with supplemental feeding can achieve offtakes of 40% yr-1
(compared to the 10-20% typical of most current herd management in Africa),
permitting lower livestock numbers per hectare (Preston and Leng, 1987). This
would achieve a reduction in CO2 and CH4 emissions. A limited amount of increased
heat tolerance can be introduced through breeding programs.
The Senegal River basin (SRB) provides an illustration of sensitivity to climatic
variations and opportunities for adaptation. The SRB is undergoing fundamental
environmental, hydrologic, and socioeconomic transitions (Venema et al.,
1997). Senegal, Mauritania, and Mali—through the river basin development
authority, the Organisation pour la Mise en Valeur du Fleuve Senegal (OMVS)—are
promoting irrigated rice production for domestic consumption in the river basin
to ease the severe foreign exchange shortfalls facing these riparian nations.
With the recent completion of Manantali and Diama dams, year-round irrigated
agriculture is now possible in the SRB. The full agricultural development potential
of the SRB is constrained, however, by the basin's limited water resources,
which are sensitive to climatic variations. An alternative approach to the SRB's
scarce water resources is an agricultural development policy that is based on
village-scale irrigation projects and intensive, irrigated agroforestry projects
(Venema et al., 1997). Village-scale irrigation is dedicated to low-water-consumption
cereal grain crops and is managed by traditional sociopolitical structures.
The proposed agroforestry production system has the dual objectives of using
irrigation to reestablish a protective biomass cover in the desertifying river
valley and reversing drought-induced migration from rural to urban areas. A
comparative river system simulation was carried out to analyze the effects of
the rice production development policy and the natural resources management
policy on the SRB's full agricultural development potential. The simulation
study compared three alternative hydrologic scenarios, using the pre-drought
era, the 1970s-level drought, and the 1980s-level drought. Dynamic programming
applied to water allocation in the Manantali reservoir showed that lower overall
water demands for the natural resource policy scenarios had higher agricultural
development potential than the proposed policy based on rice production.
A significant drawback in combating effects of climate variability is the failure
of African governments to devolve power to people who are affected and to link
environmental degradation to economic policy (Darkoh, 1998). Consequently, many
programs lack local support or are undermined by conflicting trade and agricultural
policies pursued by governments. It is contended that, for sustainable development
strategies to work, policies should put the welfare of people at the center
of the development agenda and give them the rights and power to determine their
future. Policies should empower the people to develop adaptive strategies toward
sustainable livelihoods. Moreover, threats posed to the environment and development
by protection and overconsumption in the north and structural adjustment programs
(SAPs) call for the removal of distortions created by the import barriers of
developed countries, curbing of overconsumption, and a fundamental revision
in the structure of SAPs to help alleviate poverty and protect the environment
in these African countries. It is in the interest of the global community that
the environment in Africa is protected.
Operational early warning systems in Africa—including the SADC Regional
Early Warning Unit, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine
Early Warning System Network, and the World Food Program (WFP) Vulnerability
Assessment and Mapping unit—assess the vulnerability of rural households
in many parts of Africa to food insecurity each year. Vulnerability assessments
generally develop a picture of which geographic areas and which social groups
will be unlikely to meet their subsistence needs before the next agricultural
season, based on a convergence of available environmental and socioeconomic
information (USAID, 1999). The USAID Sahel vulnerability assessment for 1999-2000
estimated that 3.8 million people were moderately food insecure in a high-rainfall
year (USAID, 2000). This could signify chronic vulnerability resulting from
structural weaknesses caused by desertification, climate change, and other long-term
environmental and socioeconomic phenomena.
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