This section deals with greenhouse gas emissions and greenhouse gas emission reduction options from the sector manufacturing industry¹⁴. Important are the energy intensive (or heavy) industries, including the production of metals (especially iron and steel, and aluminium), refineries, pulp and paper, basic chemicals (important ones are nitrogen fertilizers, petrochemicals, and chlorine), and non-metallic minerals (especially cement). The less energy intensive sectors, also called light industry, are among others, the manufacture of food, beverages, and tobacco; manufacturing of textiles; wood and wood products; printing and publishing; production of fine chemicals; and the metal processing industry (including automobiles, appliances, and electronics). In many cases these industries each produce a wide variety of final products. Non-CO₂ gases emitted from the manufacturing sector include nitrous oxide (N₂O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆). Adipic acid, nitric acid, HCFC-22 and aluminium production processes emit these gases as unintended by-products. A number of other highly diverse industries, including a few sectors replacing ozone- depleting substances, use these chemicals in manufacturing processes¹⁵.

All direct emissions from manufacturing are taken into account, plus emissions in the electricity production sector, as far as they are caused by electricity consumption by manufacturing industry firms.

Kashiwagi et al. (1996) dealt with industry emission reduction options in IPCC (1996). In that chapter, processes, energy consumption, and a range of emission reduction options (mainly for CO₂) have been described on a sector-by-sector basis. For the TAR, these options are summarized (see Section 3.5.3) and estimates of potentials and costs for emission reduction are quantified. The scope of TAR has been expanded to also include greater detail on non-CO₂ greenhouse gases and the differences in regional emission profiles and emission reduction opportunities.

Emissions of carbon dioxide are still the most dominant contribution of manufacturing industry to total greenhouse gas emission. These emissions are mainly connected to the use of energy. In Figure 3.11 an overview is given of the energy consumption of the manufacturing industry (see also Table 3.1). Energy use is growing in all regions except in the economies in transition, where energy consumption declined by 30% in the period 1990 to 1995. This effect is so strong that it nearly offsets growth in all other regions. In industrialized countries energy use is still growing at a moderate rate; electricity consumption grows faster than fuel consumption. The strongest growth rates occur in the developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region. All developing countries together account for 36% of industrial energy use. However, industry in industrialized countries on a per capita basis uses about 10 times as much energy as in developing countries.

The CO₂ emissions by the industrial sector worldwide in 1990 amounted to 1,250MtC. A breakdown of 1990/1995 emissions is given in Table 3.17. However, these emissions are only the direct emissions, related to industrial fuel consumption. The indirect emissions in 1990, caused by industrial electricity consumption, are estimated to be approximately 720MtC (Price et al., 1998 and Price et al,. 1999). In the period 1990 to 1995 carbon emissions related to energy consumption have grown by 0.4% per year.

Note that the energy-related CO₂ in a number of sectors are partly process emissions, e.g., in the refineries and in the production of ammonia, steel, and aluminium (Kashiwagi et al., 1996). However, the statistics often do not allow us to make a proper separation of these emissions.

Olivier et al., (1996) also report 91MtC of non-energy use (lubricants, waxes, etc.) and 167MtC for feedstock use (naphtha, etc.). Further work on investigating the fact of these carbon streams is necessary; knowledge about emission reduction options is still in an early stage (Patel and Gielen, 1999; Patel, 1999).

An overview of industrial greenhouse gas emissions is given in Table 3.17. The manufacturing industry turns out to be responsible for about one-third of emissions of greenhouse gases that are subject to the Kyoto Protocol. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases make up only about 6% of the industrial emissions.

Table 3.17: Overview of greenhouse gas emissions by manufacturing industry (in MtCeq) in 1990 (1995 for the fluorinated gases). Note that the accuracy is much less than 1 MtCeq Sources: see notes.
Source	OECD	EIT	Asia-Pacific DCs	Other DCs	Total	Trends after 1990 (% per year)
Fuel CO2f	546	454	461	105	1567	Stable (90-95)
Electricity CO2f	341	167	170	66	726	+1.2% (90-95)
CO2 from cementa	51	25	60	19	155
CH4a					8
N2Ob	34	13	13	4	65
HFC-23c	19	~1	~2	~1	22	+2% (90-97)
PFCsd	>11	>4	>4		31	Decreasing
SF6e	26	6	7		40	+4% (90-96)
Total					2614
a Olivier et al., 1996. b Total N2O emissions are estimated to be 489 ktonnes (65MtCeq) (Olivier et al., 1999). Main industrial process that lead to emissions of N2O are the production of adipic acid (38MtCeq) and nitric acid (23MtCeq). c At present, the main HFC source from industrial processes is the emission of HFC-23 (trifluoromethane, with an estimated GWP of 11,700) as an unintended by-product of HCFC-22 (chlorodifluoromethane) production. The weight percentage by-product is estimated to be 4%, 3%-5% (March Consulting, 1998) or 1.5%�3% (Branscome and Irving, 1999) of the HCFC-22 production. Some abatement takes place, but the fraction for 1995 is not known. Atmospheric measurements of HFC-23 suggest an emitted by-product fraction of 2.1% (Oram et al., 1998). This leads to the reported 22MtCeq These are not inconsistent with reported US - 23 emissions of 9.5MtCeq in 1990 and 7.4 MtCeq in 1995 (US EPA, 1998) and for Europe of 9.5MtCeq. Regional breakdown and trend from Olivier (2000). For other HFC emissions see the Appendix to this Chapter. d Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) have the general chemical formula CxF2x+2.The manufacturing industry is thought to be responsible for all PFC emissions, mainly CF4 and C2F6. On the basis of recent atmospheric concentration data, Harnisch (1998) estimates emissions of 10,500 tonnes and 2000 per year respectively (20 MtCeq). Most of these emissions are the by-product of aluminium smelting; a smaller but growing contribution is from plasma etching in semi-conductor manufacturing and use as solvent 1.4 - 4 MtCeq (Victor and McDonald, 1999; Harnisch et al., 1998). Some applications for higher carbon PFCs have also been identified and may become significant. C3F8 (1.4MtCeq) is emitted as a result of various activities, like plasma etching, fire extinguishers and as an additive to the refrigerant R-413a. Emissions of c-C4F8 (4MtCeq) may result from the pyrolysis of fluoropolymers, whereas C6F14 originates from use of this substance as a solvent (5 MtCeq) (Harnisch et al., 1998; Harnisch, 2000). Regional breakdown is based on Victor and McDonald (1999) and is only for CF4 and C2F6. e Maiss and Brenninkmeijer (1998) estimate the following breakdown of 1995 emissions (in tonnes SF6): switchgear manufacturers: 902; utilities and accelerators: 3476; magnesium industry: 437; electronics industry: 327; �using adiabatic properties�: 390; other uses: 498; total 6076. The regional breakdown is extrapolated from Victor and MacDonald (1999). f Price et al., 1999.

Underlying Causes for Emission Trends

Unander et al. (1999) have analysed the underlying factors for the development of energy consumption in OECD countries in the period 1990 to 1994. Generally, the development of energy use can be broken down into three factors: volume, structure and energy efficiency. In the period examined, development of production volume differed from country to country, ranging from a 2.0% growth per annum in Norway to a 1.4% per annum decline in Germany. The second factor is structure: this is determined by the shares that the various sectors have in the total industrial production volume. A quite remarkable result is that in nearly all countries, structural change within the manufacturing industry has an increasing effect on energy use, i.e. there is a shift towards more energy-intensive industrial sectors. This is a contrast with earlier periods. Finally, Unander et al. (1999) found – with some exceptions – a continuing decline in energy intensity within sectors, be it at a lower pace than in the period 1973 to 1986. For more results see Table 3.18.

In the paper by Unander et al. (1999), energy intensity is measured in terms of energy use per unit of value added. An indicator more relevant to the status of energy efficiency in a country is the specific energy consumption, corrected for structural differences. Also, such an indicator shows a continuous downward trend, as can be seen in Figure 3.12. Similar results were obtained for the iron and steel industry (Worrell et al., 1997a).

A substantial part of industrial greenhouse gas emissions is related to the production of a number of primary materials. Relevant to this is the concept of dematerialization (the reduction of society’s material use per unit of GDP). For most individual materials and many countries dematerialization can be observed. Cleveland and Ruth (1999) reviewed a range of studies that show this. They suggest that it cannot be concluded to be due to an overall decoupling of economy and material inputs, among other reasons because of the inability to measure aggregate material use. Furthermore, they note that some analysts observe relinking of economic growth and material use in more recent years. They warn against “gut” feeling that technical change, substitution, and a shift to the “information age” inexorably lead to decreased materials intensity and reduced environmental impact.

Table 3.18: Average annual rates of change in manufacturing energy use, and the degree to which changes in volume, structure and energy intensity contribute to such change Source: Unander et al. (1999)
Country	Development in energy use			Effect of volume development on energy use			Effect of structural change in industry on energy use			Effect of energy intensity changes within sectors on energy use
	1973-1986	1986-1990	1990- 1994	1973-1986	1986-1990	1990- 1994	1973-1986	1986-1990	1990-1994	1973-1986	1986-1990	1990-1994
Australia Canada Denmark Finland France Germany Italy Japan Netherlands Norway Sweden UK USA	0.3 % N/A -1.1 % 1.7 % -2.3 % -1.8 % -1.8 % -1.8 % -4.0 % 0.1 % -1.4 % -3.6 % -1.9 %	3.3 % 0.7 % -3.3 % 3.3 % 1.3 % 0.6 % 3.8 % 3.5 % 4.4 % -0.9 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 2.9 %	0.8 % 0.8 % 1.5 % 1.8 % 0.7 % -0.5 % -0.7 % -0.1 % 0.0 % 1.5 % 0.0 % -2.4 % 1.9 %	1.1 % 2.0 % 2.1 % 2.9 % 1.2 % 1.1 % 3.4 % 3.2 % 1.8 % 0.5 % 1.3 % -0.7 % 2.0 %	3.2 % 1.7 % -0.6 % 3.2 % 3.2 % 2.7 % 4.0 % 6.3 % 2.8 % -1.3 % 1.5 % 3.9 % 3.0 %	1.9 % 1.4 % 0.9 % 1.6 % -0.5 % -1.4 % 0.2 % -0.4 % 0.6 % 2.0 % 1.3 % -0.2 % 1.8 %	0.0 % N/A -0.3 % -0.1 % -0.2 % -0.4 % 0.0 % -2.0 % 1.1 % 0.6 % -0.4 % -0.4 % -1.1 %	0.6% -0.1% -0.1% 0.3% 0.1% -0.5% 0.2% -0.2% -0.4% 2.2% 0.3% -0.3% -0.5%	-0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 2.8% -0.5% 0.1%	-1.2% N/A -2.9% -2.0% -3.3% -2.6% -5.2% -3.0% -6.9% -1.1% -2.2% -2.6% -2.8%	-2.1% -0.8% -2.6% -0.2% -2.0% -1.6% -0.4% -2.6% 2.0% -1.8% -1.9% -3.6% 0.5%	0.1% -1.0% 0.7% -1.5% 1.2% -0.1% -1.4% 0.2% -1.5% -1.3% -4.1% -1.6% 1.6%

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