IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis

10.3.6 Future Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes

Projections of future changes in extremes rely on an increasingly sophisticated set of models and statistical techniques. Studies assessed in this section rely on multi-member ensembles (three to five members) from single models, analyses of multi-model ensembles ranging from 8 to 15 or more AOGCMs, and a perturbed physics ensemble with a single mixed-layer model with over 50 members. The discussion here is intended to identify general characteristics of changes in extremes in a global context. Chapter 3 provides a definition of weather and climate extremes, and Chapter 11 addresses changes in extremes for specific regions.