Extremes of Temperature and Precipitation

Very little work has been done in analysing future changes in extreme events in the Antarctic. However, the MMD simulations indicate that the increase in mean temperature and precipitation will be combined with an increase in the frequency of very warm and wet winters and summers. Using the definition of ‘extreme’ seasons provided in Section 11.1.2, the MMD models predict extremely warm seasons in about 85% of all DJF and 83% of all JJA seasons in the period 2080 to 2099, as averaged over all models (Table 11.1). The corresponding numbers for extremely wet seasons are 34% and 59%. For the B1 scenario, the frequency of extremes is smaller, with little difference between A1B and A2.

Sea Ice and Antarctic Ice Sheet

Southern Hemisphere sea ice projections are discussed in Section 10.3. The projections of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance are discussed in Section 10.6.