2.9.4 Future Climate Impact of Current Emissions
The changes in concentrations since pre-industrial time of the long-lived components causing the RF shown in Figure 2.20 are strongly influenced by the past history of emissions. A different perspective is obtained by integrating RF over a future time horizon for a one-year ‘pulse’ of global emissions (e.g., Jacobson (2002) used this approach to compare fossil fuel organic and BC aerosols to CO2). Comparing the contribution from each forcing agent as shown in Figure 2.22 gives an indication of the future climate impact for current (year 2000) emissions of the different forcing agents. For the aerosols, the integrated RF is obtained based on the lifetimes, burdens and RFs from the AeroCom experiments, as summarised in Tables 2.4 and 2.5. For ozone precursors (CO, NOx and NMVOCs), data are taken from Derwent et al. (2001), Collins et al. (2002), Stevenson et al. (2004) and Berntsen et al. (2005), while for the long-lived species the radiative efficiencies and lifetimes are used, as well as a response function for CO2 (see Section 2.10.2, Table 2.14). Uncertainties in the estimates of the integrated RF originate from uncertainties in lifetimes, optical properties and current global emissions.
Figure 2.22 shows the integrated RF for both a 20- and 100-year time horizon. Choosing the longer time horizon of 100 years, as was done in the GWPs for the long-lived species included in the Kyoto Protocol, reduces the apparent importance of the shorter-lived species. It should be noted that the compounds with long lifetimes and short emission histories will tend to contribute more to the total with this ‘forward looking’ perspective than in the standard ‘IPCC RF bar chart diagram’ (Figure 2.20).