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	IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007

Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

12.2 Current sensitivity/vulnerability

12.2.1 Climate factors and trends

The warming trend throughout Europe is well established (+0.90°C for 1901 to 2005; updated from Jones and Moberg, 2003). However, the recent period shows a trend considerably higher than the mean trend (+0.41°C/decade for the period 1979 to 2005; updated from Jones and Moberg, 2003). For the 1977 to 2000 period, trends are higher in central and north-eastern Europe and in mountainous regions, while lower trends are found in the Mediterranean region (Böhm et al., 2001; Klein Tank, 2004). Temperatures are increasing more in winter than summer (Jones and Moberg, 2003). An increase of daily temperature variability is observed during the period 1977 to 2000 due to an increase in warm extremes, rather than a decrease of cold extremes (Klein Tank et al., 2002; Klein Tank and Können, 2003).

Precipitation trends are more spatially variable. Mean winter precipitation is increasing in most of Atlantic and northern Europe (Klein Tank et al., 2002). In the Mediterranean area, yearly precipitation trends are negative in the east, while they are non-significant in the west (Norrant and Douguédroit, 2006). An increase in mean precipitation per wet day is observed in most parts of the continent, even in some areas which are becoming drier (Frich et al., 2002; Klein Tank et al., 2002; Alexander et al., 2006). Some of the European systems and sectors have shown particular sensitivity to recent trends in temperature and (to a lesser extent) precipitation (Table 12.1).

Table 12.1. Attribution of recent changes in natural and managed ecosystems to recent temperature and precipitation trends. See Chapter 1, Section 1.3 for additional data.

Region	Observed change	Reference
Coastal and marine systems
North-east Atlantic, North Sea	Northward movement of plankton and fish	Brander and Blom, 2003; Edwards and Richardson, 2004; Perry et al., 2005
Terrestrial ecosystems
Europe	Upward shift of the tree line	Kullman, 2002; Camarero and Gutiérrez, 2004; Shiyatov et al., 2005; Walther et al., 2005a
Europe	Phenological changes (earlier onset of spring events and lengthening of the growing season); increasing productivity and carbon sink during 1950 to 1999 of forests (in 30 countries)	Menzel et al., 2006a Nabuurs et al., 2003, Shvidenko and Nilsson, 2003; Boisvenue and Running, 2006
Alps	Invasion of evergreen broad-leaved species in forests; upward shift of Viscum album	Walther, 2004; Dobbertin et al., 2005
Scandinavia	Northward range expansion of Ilex aquifolium	Walter et al., 2005a
Fennoscandian mountains and sub-Artic	Disappearance of some types of wetlands (palsa mires^[1]) in Lapland; increased species richness and frequency at altitudinal margin of plant life	Klanderud and Birks, 2003; Luoto et al., 2004
High mountains	Change in high mountain vegetation types and new occurrence of alpine vegetation on high summits.	Grabherr et al., 2001; Kullman, 2001; Pauli et al., 2001; Klanderud and Birks, 2003; Peñuelas and Boada, 2003; Petriccione, 2003; Sanz Elorza and Dana, 2003; Walther et al., 2005a
Agriculture
Northern Europe	Increased crop stress during hotter, drier summers; increased risk to crops from hail	Viner et al., 2006
Britain, southern Scandinavia	Increased area of silage maize (more favourable conditions due to warmer summer temperatures)	Olesen and Bindi, 2004
France	Increases in growing season of grapevine; changes in wine quality	Jones and Davis, 2000; Duchene and Schneider, 2005
Germany	Advance in the beginning of growing season for fruit trees	Menzel, 2003; Chmielewski et al., 2004
Cryosphere
Russia	Decrease in thickness and areal extent of permafrost and damages to infrastructure	Frauenfeld et al., 2004; Mazhitova et al., 2004
Alps	Decrease in seasonal snow cover (at lower elevation)	Laternser and Schneebeli, 2003; Martin and Etchevers, 2005
Europe	Decrease in glacier volume and area (except some glaciers in Norway)	Hoelzle et al., 2003
Health
North, East	Movement of tick vectors northwards, and possibly to high altitudes	Lindgren and Gustafson, 2001; Randolph, 2002; Beran et al., 2004; Danielova et al., 2004; Izmerov, 2004; Daniel et al., 2005; Materna et al., 2005
Mediterranean, West, South	Northward movement of Visceral Leishmaniasis in dogs and humans [low confidence]	Molyneux, 2003; Kuhn et al., 2004; WHO, 2005; Lindgren and Naucke, 2006
Mediterranean, Atlantic, Central	Heatwave mortality	Fischer et al., 2004; Kosatsky, 2005; Nogueira et al., 2005, Pirard et al., 2005
Atlantic, Central, East, North	Earlier onset and extension of season for allergenic pollen	Huynen and Menne, 2003; van Vliet et al., 2003; Beggs, 2004 [Chapter 1.3.7.5]

^ Palsa mire: a type of peatland typified by high mounds with permanently frozen cores and separated by wet depressions; they form where the ground surface is only frozen for part of the year.