IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Chapter 5: Food, Fibre, and Forest Products

Executive summary

5.1 Introduction: importance, scope and uncertainty, Third Assessment Report summary, and methods

5.1.1 Importance of agriculture, forestry and fisheries

5.1.2 Scope of the chapter and treatment of uncertainty

5.1.3 Important findings of the Third Assessment Report

5.1.4 Methods

5.2 Current sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate

5.2.1 Current sensitivity

5.2.2 Sensitivity to multiple stresses

5.2.3 Current vulnerability and adaptive capacity in perspective

5.3 Assumptions about future trends in climate, food, forestry and fisheries

5.3.1 Climate

5.3.2 Balancing future global supply and demand in agriculture, forestry and fisheries

5.4 Key future impacts, vulnerabilities and their spatial distribution

5.4.1 Primary effects and interactions

5.4.2 Food-crop farming, including tree crops

5.4.3 Pastures and livestock production

5.4.4 Industrial crops and biofuels

5.4.5 Key future impacts on forestry

5.4.6 Capture fisheries and aquaculture: marine and inland waters

5.4.7 Rural livelihoods: subsistence and smallholder agriculture

5.5 Adaptations: options and capacities

5.5.1 Autonomous adaptations

5.5.2 Planned adaptations

5.6 Costs and other socio-economic aspects, including food supply and security

5.6.1 Global costs to agriculture

5.6.2 Global costs to forestry

5.6.3 Changes in trade

5.6.4 Regional costs and associated socio-economic impacts

5.6.5 Food security and vulnerability

5.7 Implications for sustainable development

5.8 Key conclusions and their uncertainties, confidence levels and research gaps

5.8.1 Findings and key conclusions

5.8.2 Research gaps and priorities


Coordinating Lead Authors:

William Easterling (USA), Pramod Aggarwal (India)

Lead Authors:

Punsalmaa Batima (Mongolia), Keith Brander (ICES/Denmark/UK), Lin Erda (China), Mark Howden (Australia), Andrei Kirilenko (Russia), John Morton (UK), Jean-François Soussana (France), Josef Schmidhuber (FAO/Italy), Francesco Tubiello (USA/IIASA/Italy)

Contributing Authors:

John Antle (USA), Walter Baethgen (Uruguay), Chris Barlow (Lao PDR), Netra Chhetri (Nepal), Sophie des Clers (UK), Patricia Craig (USA), Judith Cranage (USA), Wulf Killmann (FAO/Italy), Terry Mader (USA), Susan Mann (USA), Karen O’Brien (Norway), Christopher Pfeiffer (USA), Roger Sedjo (USA)

Review Editors:

John Sweeney (Ireland), Lucka K. Kajfež-Bogataj (Slovenia)

This chapter should be cited as:

Easterling, W.E., P.K. Aggarwal, P. Batima, K.M. Brander, L. Erda, S.M. Howden, A. Kirilenko, J. Morton, J.-F. Soussana, J. Schmidhuber and F.N. Tubiello, 2007: Food, fibre and forest products. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani,

J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 273-313.