5.3 Assumptions about future trends in climate, food, forestry and fisheries

Declining global population growth (UN, 2004), rapidly rising urbanisation, shrinking shares of agriculture in the overall formation of incomes and fewer people dependent on agriculture are among the key factors likely to shape the social setting in which climate change is likely to evolve. These factors will determine how climate change affects agriculture, how rural populations can cope with changing climate conditions, and how these will affect food security. Any assessment of climate change impacts on agro-ecological conditions of agriculture must be undertaken against this background of changing socio-economic setting (Bruinsma, 2003).