4.2.3 Regional development trends

World primary energy demand is projected to reach 650–890EJ by 2030 based on A1 and B2 SRES scenarios and the Reference scenario of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2004 (Price and de la Rue du Can, 2006). All three scenarios show Asia could surpass North American energy demand by around 2010 and be close to doubling it by 2030. Africa, the Middle East and Latin America could double their energy demand by 2030; sub-Saharan Africa and the Former Soviet Union may both reach 60–70 EJ, and Pacific OECD and Central and Eastern Europe will be less than 40 EJ each. Demand is more evenly distributed among regions in the B2 scenario, with Central and Eastern Europe and the Pacific OECD region reducing future demand. A similar pattern is evident for final consumer energy (Table 4.1).

Table 4.1: Final energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions for all sectors by region to 2030 based on assumptions from three baseline scenarios.

Source: Price and De la Rue du Can, 2006

The World Energy Council projected 2000 data out to 2050 for three selected scenarios with varying population estimates (WEC, 2004d). The IEA (2003c) and IPCC SRES scenarios (Chapter 3) did likewise. Implications of sustainable development were that primary energy demands are likely to experience a 40 to 150% increase, with emissions rising to between 48 and 55 GtCO₂/yr. This presents difficulties for the energy-supply side to meet energy demand. It requires technical progress and capital provision, and provides challenges for minimizing the environmental consequences and sustainability of the dynamic system. Electricity is expected to grow even more rapidly than primary energy by between 110 and 260% up to 2050, presenting even more challenges in needing to build power production and transmission facilities, mostly in developing countries.

The Asia-Pacific region has almost 30% of proven coal resources but otherwise is highly dependent on imported energy, particularly oil, which is now the largest source of primary commercial energy consumed in the region. In 2003, 82% of imported oil came from the Middle East and the region will continue to depend on OPEC countries. A continuation of China’s rapid annual economic growth of 9.67% from 1990 to 2003 (CSY, 2005) will result in continued new energy demand, primary energy consumption having increased steadily since the 1980s. Energy consumption in 2003 reached 49 EJ. High air pollution in China is directly related to energy consumption, particularly from coal combustion that produces 70% of national particulate emissions, 90% of SO₂, 67% of N₂O and 70% of CO₂ (BP, 2004).

Increased use of natural gas has recently occurred throughout the Asian region, although its share of 12% of primary energy remains lower than the 23% and 17% shares in the United States and the European Union, respectively (BP, 2006). A liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has recently emerged in the region, dominated by Japan, South Korea and Spain, who together provide about 68% of worldwide trade flows.

Primary energy consumption in the Asia-Pacific region due to continued overall economic growth and increasing transport fuel demand is estimated to increase by 1.0% annually over the period 2002–2030 in OECD Asia, 2.6% in China, 2.1% in India, and 2.7% in Indonesia (IEA, 2004a). This will then account for 42% of the increase in world primary-energy demand. The region could be faced with overall energy resource shortages in the coming decades (Komiyama et al., 2005). Energy security risks are likely to increase and stricter environmental restrictions on fossil fuel consumption could be imposed. Nuclear power (Section 4.3.2), hydropower (Section 4.3.3.1) and other renewables (Section 4.3.3) may play a greater role in electricity generation to meet the ever-rising demand.

For economies in transition (EIT, mainly from the former Soviet Union), the total primary energy consumption in 2000 (Figure 4.6) was only 70% of the 1990 level (Enerdata, 2004) and a sharp downturn in GHG emissions resulted. Although increasing more recently, emissions remain some 30% below 1990 levels (IEA, 2003a; Figure 4.2). Despite the economic and political transformations, energy systems in EIT countries are still characterized by overcapacity in electricity production, high dependency on fossil-fuel imports and inefficient use (IEA, 2003b). Market reforms have been accompanied with the opening of these economies, leading to their integration into the European and global economies. Growth is likely to accelerate faster in those countries that have achieved EU membership (IEA, 2003b). The total primary-energy consumption of EIT has increased by 2% per year since 2000 and is expected to increase steadily over the next couple of decades as income levels and economic outputs expand, unless energy efficiency manages to stabilize demand.

Latin America, Africa and the Middle East are expected to double their energy demand over the next two to three decades and to retain their shares of global energy demand (IEA, 2005a; Price and de la Rue du Can, 2006). Policies in developing countries aimed at energy-supply security, reducing environmental impacts and encouraging a free market economy (Section 4.5.1.1) may help encourage market efficiency, energy conservation, common oil-reserve storage, investment in resource exploration, implementation of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and international carbon emission trading. International cooperation will continue to play a role in the development of energy resources and improvement of industrial productivity.