5.6 Key uncertainties and gaps in knowledge

Key uncertainties in assessment of mitigation potential in the transport sector through the year 2030 are:

• World oil supply and its impact on prices and alternative transport fuels;
• R&D outcomes in several areas, especially biomass fuel production technology and its sustainability if used on a massive scale, and batteries. These outcomes will strongly influence the future costs and performance of a wide range of transport technologies.

The degree to which the potential can be realized will crucially depend on the priority that developed and developing countries give to GHG emissions mitigation.

A key gap in knowledge is the lack of comprehensive and consistent assessments of the worldwide potential and cost to mitigate transport’s GHG emissions. There are also important gaps in basic statistics and information on transport energy consumption and GHG mitigation, especially in developing countries.