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	IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007

Climate Change 2007: Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change

6.5.2 Recent advances in estimating the costs of GHG mitigation in buildings

Table 6.3 below and Table 6.4 provide information on the GHG abatement potentials in buildings as a function of costs and world regions for 2020 (Table 6.3) and for 2030 (Table 6.4). These demonstrate that the majority of measures for CO₂ abatement in buildings are cost-effective. The table also demonstrates that measures to save electricity in buildings typically offer larger and cheaper options to abate CO₂ emissions than measures related to fuel savings. This is especially true for developing countries located in warmer regions, which have less need for space and water heating.

Table 6.3: CO₂ mitigation potential projections in 2020 as a function of CO₂ cost

World regions	Baseline emissions in 2020	CO₂ mitigation potentials as share of the baseline CO₂ emission projections in cost categories in 2020 (costs in US$/tCO₂-eq)				CO₂ mitigation potentials in absolute values in cost categories in 2020, GtCO₂ (costs in US$/tCO₂-eq)
World regions	(GtCO₂-eq)	<0	0-20	20-100	<100	<0	0-20	20-100	<100
Globe	11.1	29%	3%	4%	36%	3.2	0.35	0.45	4.0
OECD (-EIT)	4.8	27%	3%	2%	32%	1.3	0.10	0.10	1.6
EIT	1.3	29%	12%	23%	64%	0.4	0.15	0.30	0.85
Non-OECD	5.0	30%	2%	1%	32%	1.5	0.10	0.05	1.6

Table 6.4: Extrapolated CO₂ mitigation potential in 2030 as a function of CO₂ cost, GtCO₂

Mitigation option	Region	Baseline projections in 2030	Potential at costs at below 100 US$/tCO₂-eq		Potential in different cost categories
			Potential at costs at below 100 US$/tCO₂-eq		<0 US$/tCO₂	0-20 US$/tCO₂	20-100 US$/tCO₂
			Low	High	<0 US$/tC	0-73 US$/tC	73-367 US$/tC
Electricity savings^a	OECD	3.4	0.75	0.95	0.85	0.0	0.0
	EIT	0.4	0.15	0.20	0.20	0.0	0.0
	Non-OECD/EIT	4.5	1.7	2.4	1.9	0.1	0.1
Fuel savings	OECD	2.0	1.0	1.2	0.85	0.2	0.1
	EIT	1.0	0.55	0.85	0.20	0.2	0.3
	Non-OECD/EIT	3.0	0.70	0.80	0.65	0.1	0.0
Total	OECD	5.4	1.8	2.2	1.7	0.2	0.1
	EIT	1.4	0.70	1.1	0.40	0.2	0.3
	Non-OECD/EIT	7.5	2.4	3.2	2.5	0.1	0.0
	Global	14.3	4.8	6.4	4.5	0.5	0.7

Note: a) The absolute values of the potentials resulting from electricity savings in Table 6.4 and Table 11.3 do not coincide due to application of different baselines. Table 6.4 uses the baseline constructed on the basis of the reviewed studies while Table 11.3 applies WEO 2004 baseline (IEA, 2004e) to calculate CO₂ emission reductions from electricity savings. The potential estimates as a percentage of the baseline are the same in both cases. Also Table 11.3 excludes the share of emission reductions which is already taken into account by the energy supply sector, while Table 6.4 does not separate this potential.