6.9 Interactions of mitigation options with vulnerability, adaptation and sustainable development

6.9.1 Interactions of mitigation options with vulnerability and adaptation

In formulating climate change strategies, mitigation efforts need to be balanced with those aimed at adaptation. There are interactions between vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation in buildings through climatic conditions and energy systems. As a result of a warming climate, heating energy consumption will decline, but energy demand for cooling will increase while at the same time passive cooling techniques will become less effective. The net impact of these changes on GHG emissions is related to the available choice of primary energy used and the efficiency of technologies that are used for heating and cooling needs. Mansur et al. (2005) find that the combination of climate warming and fuel switching in US buildings from fuels to electricity results in increases in the overall energy demand, especially electricity. Other studies indicate that in European countries with moderate climate the increase in electricity for additional cooling is higher than the decrease for heating demand in winter (Levermore et al., 2004; Aebischer et al., 2006; Mirasgedis et al., 2006). Aebischer et al. (2006) finds that in Europe there is likely to be a net increase in power demand in all but the most northerly countries, and in the south a significant increase in summer peak demand is expected. Depending on the generation mix in particular countries, the net effect on carbon dioxide emissions may be an increase even where overall demand for final energy declines. Since in many countries electricity generation is largely based on fossil fuels, the resulting net difference between heating reduction and cooling increases may significantly increase the total amount of GHG emissions. This causes a positive feedback loop: more mechanical cooling emits more GHGs, thereby exacerbating warming, although the effect maybe moderate.

Vulnerability of energy demand to climate is country- and region-specific. For instance, a temperature increase of 2^°C is associated with an 11.6% increase in residential per capita electricity use in Florida, but with a 7.2% decrease in Washington DC (Sailor, 2001). Increased net energy demand translates into increased welfare losses. Mansur et al. (2005) found that, for a 5^°C increase in temperature by 2100, the annual welfare loss in increased energy expenditures is predicted to reach US$ 40 billion for US households.

Fortunately, there are many potential synergies where investments in the buildings sector may reduce the overall cost of climate change-in terms of both mitigation and adaptation. For instance, if new buildings are constructed, the design can address both mitigation and adaptation aspects. Among the most important of these are reduced cooling loads. For instance, using advanced insulation techniques and passive solar design to reduce the expected increase in air conditioning load. In addition, if high-efficiency electric appliances are used, the savings are increased due to reduced electricity demand for air conditioning, especially in commercial buildings. Roof retrofits can incorporate increased insulation and storm security in one investment. In addition, the integrated design of well-insulated, air-tight buildings, with efficient air management and energy systems, leads not only to lower GHG emissions, but also to reduced thermal stress to occupants, reducing extreme weather-related mortality and other health effects. Furthermore, adaptive comfort, where occupants accept higher indoor (comfort) temperatures when the outside temperature is high, is now incorporated in design considerations, especially for predominantly naturally ventilated buildings (see Box 6.5).

Policies that actively promote integrated building solutions for both mitigating and adapting to climate change are especially important for the buildings sector. It has been observed that building users responding to a warmer climate generally choose options that increase cooling energy consumption rather than other means, such as insulation, shading, or ventilation, which consume less energy. A prime example of this is the tendency of occupants of existing, poorly performing buildings (mainly in developing countries) to buy portable air conditioning units. These trends – which clearly will accelerate in warmer summers to come – may result in a significant increase of GHG emissions from the sector, enhancing the positive feedback process. However, well-designed policies supporting less energy-intensive cooling alternatives can help combat these trends (see Box 6.5 and Section 6.4.4.1). Good urban planning, including increasing green areas as well as cool roofs in cities, has proven to be an efficient way to limit the heat island effect, which also aggravates the increased cooling needs (Sailor, 2002).