7.1.3 Emission trends

Total industrial sector GHG emissions are currently estimated to be about 12 GtCO₂-eq/yr (3.3 GtC-eq/yr) (high agreement, much evidence). Global and sectoral data on final energy use, primary energy use^[3], and energy-related CO₂ emissions including indirect emissions related to electricity use, for 1971 to 2004 (Price et al., 2006), are shown in Table 7.1. In 1971, the industrial sector used 91 EJ of primary energy, 40% of the global total of 227 EJ. By 2004, industry’s share of global primary energy use declined to 37%.

Table 7.1: Industrial sector final energy, primary energy and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, nine world regions, 1971–2004

The developing nations’ share of industrial CO₂ emissions from energy use grew from 18% in 1971 to 53% in 2004. In 2004, energy use by the industrial sector resulted in emissions of 9.9 GtCO₂ (2.7 GtC), 37% of global CO₂ emissions from energy use. Direct CO₂ emissions totalled 5.1 Gt (1.4 GtC), the balance being indirect emissions associated with the generation of electricity and other energy carriers. In 2000, CO₂ emissions from non-energy uses of fossil fuels (e.g., production of petro-chemicals) and from non-fossil fuel sources (e.g., cement manufacture) were estimated to be 1.7 GtCO₂ (0.46 GtC) (Olivier and Peters, 2005). As shown in Table 7.3, industrial emissions of non-CO₂ gases totalled about 0.4 GtCO₂-eq (0.1 GtC-eq) in 2000 and are projected to be at about the same level in 2010. Direct GHG emissions from the industrial sector are currently about 7.2 GtCO₂-eq (2.0 GtC-eq), and total emissions, including indirect emissions, are about 12 GtCO₂-eq (3.3 GtC-eq).

Table 7.2: Projected industrial sector final energy, primary energy and energy-related CO₂ emissions, based on SRES Scenarios, 2010–2030. A1B Scenario

Table 7.2.B2 Scenario

Table 7.2 shows the results for the industrial sector of the disaggregation of two of the emission scenarios (see footnote 1), A1B and B2, produced for the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (IPCC, 2000b) into four subsectors and nine world regions (Price et al., 2006). These projections show energy-related industrial CO₂ emissions of 14 and 20 GtCO₂ in 2030 for the B2 and A1B scenarios, respectively. In both scenarios, CO₂ emissions from industrial energy use are expected to grow significantly in the developing countries, while remaining essentially constant in the A1 scenario and declining in the B2 scenario for the industrialized countries and countries with economies-in-transition.

Table 7.3 shows projections of non-CO₂ GHG emissions from the industrial sector to 2030 extrapolated from data to 2020 (US EPA 2006a,b). US EPA provides the only comprehensive data set with baselines and mitigation costs over this time frame for all gases and all sectors. However, baselines differ substantially for sectors covered by other studies, for example IPCC/TEAP (2005). As a result of mitigation actions, non-CO₂ GHG emissions decreased from 1990 to 2000, and there are many programmes underway to further reduce these emissions (See Sections 7.4.2 and 7.4.8.). Therefore Table 7.3 shows the US EPA’s ‘technology adoption’ scenario, which assumes continued compliance with voluntary industrial targets. Table 7.4 shows these emissions by industrial process.^[4]

Table 7.3: Projected industrial sector emissions of non-CO₂ GHGs, MtCO₂-eq/yr

Table 7.4: Projected baseline industrial sector emissions of non-CO₂ GHGs