|
|
|
|
|
|
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Climate Change 2007: Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change 7.5.1 Electricity savings Electricity savings are of particular interest, since they feedback into the mitigation potential calculation for the energy sector and because of the potential for double counting of the emissions reductions. Section 7.3.2 indicates that in the EU and USA electric motor driven systems account for about 65% of industrial energy use, and that efficient systems could reduce this use by 30%. About one-third of the savings potential was assumed to be realized in the baseline, resulting in a net mitigation potential of 13% of industrial electricity use. This mitigation potential was included in the estimates of mitigation potential for energy-intensive industries presented in Table 7.8. However, it is also necessary to consider the potential for electricity savings from non-energy-intensive industries, which are large consumers of electricity. The estimation procedure used to develop these numbers was as follows: Because data could not be found on other countries/regions, US data (EIA, 2002) on electricity use as a fraction of total energy use by industry and on the fraction of electricity use consumed by motor driven systems was taken as representative of global patterns. Based on De Keulenaer et al. (2004) and Xenergy (1998), a 30% mitigation potential was assumed. Emission factors to convert electricity savings into CO2 reductions were derived from IEA data (IEA, 2004). The emission reduction potential from non-energy-intensive industries were calculated by subtracting the savings from energy-intensive industries from total industrial emissions reduction potential. Using the B2 baseline, 49% of total electricity savings are found in industries other than those identified in Table 7.8.
Table 7.8: Mitigation potential and cost in 2030 | | 2030 production (Mt)a | GHG intensity (tCO2-eq/t prod.) | Mitigation potential (%) | Cost range (US$) | Mitigation potential (MtCO2-eq/yr) |
---|
Product | Areab | A1 | B2 | A1 | B2 |
---|
CO2 emissions from processes and energy use |
---|
Steelc,d | Global | 1,163 | 1,121 | 1.6-3.8 | 15-40 | 20-50 | 430-1,500 | 420-1,500 | | OECD | 370 | 326 | 1.6-2.0 | 15-40 | 20-50 | 90-300 | 80-260 | | EIT | 162 | 173 | 20.-3.8 | 25-40 | 20-50 | 80-240 | 85-260 | | Dev. Nat. | 639 | 623 | 1.6-3.8 | 25-40 | 20-50 | 260-970 | 250-940 | Primary | Global | 39 | 37 | 8.4 | 15-25 | <100 | 53-82 | 49-75 | aluminiume,f | OECD | 12 | 11 | 8.5 | 15-25 | <100 | 16-25 | 15-22 | | EIT | 9 | 6 | 8.6 | 15-25 | <100 | 12-19 | 8-13 | | Dev. Nat. | 19 | 20 | 8.3 | 15-25 | <100 | 25-38 | 26-40 | Cementg,h,i | Global | 6,517 | 5,251 | 0.73-0.99 | 11-40 | <50 | 720-2,100 | 480-1,700 | | OECD | 600 | 555 | 0.73-0.99 | 11-40 | <50 | 65-180 | 50-160 | | EIT | 362 | 181 | 0.81-0.89 | 11-40 | <50 | 40-120 | 20-60 | | Dev. Nat. | 5,555 | 4,515 | 0.82-0.93 | 11-40 | <50 | 610-1,800 | 410-1,500 | Ethylenej | Global | 329 | 218 | 1.33 | 20 | <20 | 85 | 58 | | OECD | 139 | 148 | 1.33 | 20 | <20 | 35 | 40 | | EIT | 19 | 11 | 1.33 | 20 | <20 | 5 | 3 | | Dev. Nat. | 170 | 59 | 1.33 | 20 | <20 | 45 | 15 | Ammoniak,l | Global | 218 | 202 | 1.6-2.7 | 25 | <20 | 110 | 100 | | OECD | 23 | 20 | 1.6-2.7 | 25 | <20 | 11 | 10 | | EIT | 21 | 23 | 1.6-2.7 | 25 | <20 | 10 | 12 | | Dev. Nat. | 175 | 159 | 1.6-2.7 | 25 | <20 | 87 | 80 | Petroleum | Global | 4,691 | 4,508 | 0.32-0.64 | 10-20 | Half <20 | 150-300 | 140-280 | refiningm | OECD | 2,198 | 2,095 | 0.32-0.64 | 10-20 | Half <50 | 70-140 | 67-130 | | EIT | 384 | 381 | 0.32-0.64 | 10-20 | “ | 12-24 | 12-24 | | Dev. Nat. | 2,108 | 2,031 | 0.32-0.64 | 10-20 | “ | 68-140 | 65-130 | Pulp and papern | Global | 1,321 | 920 | 0.22-1.40 | 5-40 | <20 | 49-420 | 37-300 | OECD | 695 | 551 | 0.22-1.40 | 5-40 | <20 | 28-220 | 22-180 | EIT | 65 | 39 | 0.22-1.40 | 5-40 | <20 | 3-21 | 2-13 | Dev. Nat. | 561 | 330 | 0.22-1.40 | 5-40 | <20 | 18-180 | 13-110 |
Table 7.8 continued | | 2030 production (Mt)a | CCS Potential (tCO2/t) | Mitigation potential (%) | Cost range (US$) | Mitigation potential (MtCO2-eq) |
---|
Product | Areab | A1 | B2 | A1 | B2 |
---|
Carbon Capture and Storage |
---|
Ammoniao,p | Global | 218 | 202 | 0.5 | about 100 | <50 | 150 | 140 | | OECD | 23 | 20 | 0.5 | about 100 | <50 | 15 | 13 | | EIT | 21 | 23 | 0.5 | about 100 | <50 | 14 | 16 | | Dev. Nat. | 175 | 159 | 0.5 | about 100 | <50 | 120 | 110 | Petroleum | Global | 4,691 | 4,508 | 0.032-0.064 | about 50 | <50 | 75-150 | 72-150 | Refiningm,p,q | OECD | 2,198 | 2,095 | 0.032-0.064 | about 50 | <50 | 35-70 | 34-70 | | EIT | 384 | 381 | 0.032-0.064 | about 50 | <50 | 6-12 | 6-12 | | Dev. Nat. | 2,108 | 2,031 | 0.032-0.064 | about 50 | <50 | 34-70 | 32-65 | Cementr | Global | 6,517 | 5,251 | 0.65-0.89 | about 6 | <100 | 250-350 | 200-280 | | OECD | 600 | 555 | 0.65-0.80 | about 6 | <100 | 23-32 | 22-27 | | EIT | 362 | 181 | 0.73-0.80 | about 6 | <100 | 16-17 | 8-9 | | Dev. Nat. | 5,555 | 4,515 | 0.74-0.84 | about 6 | <100 | 210-300 | 170-240 | Iron and Steel | Global | 1,163 | 1,121 | 0.32-0.76 | about 20 | <50 | 70-180 | 70-170 | | OECD | 370 | 326 | 0.32-0.40 | about 20 | <50 | 24-30 | 21-26 | | EIT | 162 | 173 | 0.40-0.76 | about 20 | <50 | 13-25 | 14-26 | | Dev. Nat. | 639 | 623 | 0.32-0.76 | about 20 | <50 | 33-120 | 35-120 | | | | | | | | | | Non-CO2 gasesr |
---|
| Global | 668 | | | 37% <0US$ | 380 | | OECD | 305 | | | 53% <20US$ | 160 | | EIT | 53 | | | 55% <50US$ | 29 | | Dev. Nat. | 310 | | | 57%<100US$ | 190 | Other industries, electricity conservations |
---|
| | | | | | | | | | Global | | | | | 25% <20 | 1,100-1,300 | 410-540 | | OECD | | | | | 25% <50 | 140-210 | 65-140 | | EIT | | | | | 50% <100 | 340-350 | 71-85 | | Dev. Nat. | | | | | d | 640-700 | 280-320 | Sumt,u,v,w | Global | | | | | | 3,000-6,300 | 2,000-5,100 | | OECD | | | | | | 580-1,300 | 470-1,100 | | EIT | | | | | | 540-830 | 250-510 | | Dev. Nat. | | | | | | 2,000-4,300 | 1,300-3,400 |
|
|
|
|