9. Aircraft Emissions: Current Inventories and Future Scenarios

Executive Summary

9.1. Introduction

9.2. Factors Affecting Aircraft Emissions

     9.2.1. Demand for Air Travel

     9.2.2. Developments in Technology

9.3. Historical, Present-Day, and 2015 Forecast Emissions Inventories

    9.3.1. NASA, ANCAT/EC2, and DLR Historical and Present-Day Emissions Inventories

    9.3.2. NASA, ANCAT/EC2, and DLR 2015 Emissions Forecasts

    9.3.3. Other Emissions Inventories

    9.3.4. Comparisons of Present-Day and 2015 Forecast Emissions Inventories (NASA, ANCAT/EC2, and DLR)

    9.3.5. Error Analysis and Assessment of Inventories

9.4. Long-Term Emissions Scenarios

    9.4.1. FESG 2050 Scenarios

9.4.1.1. Development of Traffic Projection Model
9.4.1.2. FESG Technology Projections
9.4.1.3. FESG Emissions Scenario Results

9.6. Evaluation and Assessment of Long-Term Subsonic Scenarios

    9.6.1. Difficulties in Constructing Long-Term Scenarios

    9.6.2. Structure and Assumptions

    9.6.3. Traffic Demand

    9.6.4. NOx Technology Projections

    9.6.5. Infrastructure and Fuel Availability Assumptions

    9.6.6. Plausibility Checks

9.6.6.1. Fleet Size
9.6.6.2. Airport and Infrastructure Implications
9.6.6.3. Fuel Availability
9.6.6.4. Manufacturing Capability and Trends in Aircraft Capacity
9.6.6.5. Synthesis of Plausibility Analyses

STEPHEN C. HENDERSON AND UPALI K. WICKRAMA

Lead Authors: S.L. Baughcum, J.J. Begin, F. Franco, D.L. Greene, D.S. Lee, M.-L. McLaren, A.K. Mortlock, P.J. Newton, A. Schmitt, D.J. Sutkus, A. Vedantham, D.J. Wuebbles

Contributors: R.M. Gardner, L. Meisenheimer Review

Editor: O. Davidson

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