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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The solar ultraviolet (UV) irradiance incident on the surface of the Earth
is responsible for a variety of biological effects (UNEP, 1994). This radiation
varies greatly with local time, altitude, latitude, season, and meteorological
conditions. For a given solar elevation, the transmission of UV sunlight through
the atmosphere depends on absorption, predominantly by ozone; scattering and
absorption by aerosols; and scattering by clouds. Aircraft emissions have the
potential to alter each of these processes, and hence to influence the solar
radiation field at biologically relevant UV wavelengths. To characterize UV
radiation, this chapter adopts the erythemal dose rate (UVery), which is defined
as the irradiance on a horizontal surface, at local solar noon, integrated over
wavelength, with a wavelength-dependent weighting factor to account for the
sunburning effect of the radiation as a function of wavelength and expressed
in W m-2.
The calculated impacts of present and future fleets of aircraft on atmospheric
ozone-hence on the UVery-are compared with those calculated from other expected
changes in the composition of the atmosphere, including changes in bromine and
chlorine content and expected increases in emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx)
resulting from combustion at the surface. For these calculations, 1970 is taken
as the reference year; a combination of results from three-dimensional (3-D)
and two-dimensional (2-D) chemical transport models is used to predict changes
in ozone for the period 1970 to 2050.
The calculated changes in UVery show strong dependencies on latitude, season,
composition of the background atmosphere, and, in the case of aircraft impacts,
whether the aviation fleet is assumed to have a component of supersonic aircraft.
For present and projected fleets of subsonic aircraft, the calculations predict
a decrease in UVery relative to the corresponding background atmosphere, which
contains no aircraft emissions. The biggest changes are calculated for northern
mid-latitudes, where present and expected emissions are greatest. For example,
at 45°N in July the change in UVery relative to the corresponding background
atmosphere is predicted to range from -0.5% in 1992 to -1.3% in 2050; the decrease
in UV is brought about by the increase in ozone in the upper troposphere resulting
from aircraft emissions. The corresponding range at 45°S, where present and
predicted air traffic is substantially less, is -0.1% in 1992 and -0.3% in 2050
for January.
Ozone changes for the range of scenarios considered for these calculations
have been obtained from Chapter 4. For calculations of the impact of subsonic
aircraft on UVery, Chapter 4 has given a factor of 2 as the uncertainty for
calculated ozone changes. These uncertainties are taken as the 67% likelihood
range. We believe that uncertainty in the calculation of ozone changes is by
far the greatest uncertainty in the determination of changes in UVery; accordingly,
we have not added additional uncertainties to the range supplied by Chapter
4. In addition, our assessment of the confidence in these calculations is as
given by Chapter 4: that is, "fair" for 2015 and "poor"
for 2050. Accordingly, the calculated change for 2050 at 45°N in July, for example,
can be expressed as-1.3% (-2.5 to -0.7%).
The introduction of mixed supersonic and subsonic fleets in the future will
have the potential to modify the impact of aviation on UVery. Present calculations
predict only marginal changes to the values of UVery in the tropics and increases
in mid-latitudes. For example, the predicted changes relative to the corresponding
background at 45°N in July are +0.6% in 2015 and +0.3% in 2050. For 45°S in
January, the predicted changes in UVery are +0.4% for 2015 and +0.2% in 2050,
relative to the corresponding background atmospheres. Although these estimated
changes may be considered small, they do have significantly larger uncertainty
limits. The limits for a particular confidence range are difficult to determine.
The %UVery changes are dominated by changes in ozone; the values for these changes
are supplied by Chapter 4, which has also considered three
components when assessing the uncertainty for the impact of the hybrid fleet
on ozone. These components are the spread obtained by a number of models for
a range of plausible scenarios, uncertainties in chemical rate coefficients,
and uncertainties introduced by inaccurate treatment of atmospheric circulation
in the models. Chapter 4 concluded that the annually averaged
impact on ozone for the Northern Hemisphere of a hybrid fleet in 2050, including
1,000 High-Speed Civil Transports (HSCTs), would be in the range of -3.5 to
+1% compared with the impact of the subsonic fleet, with a best estimate of
-1%. This result again represents the 67% likelihood range with a confidence
in this uncertainty range of "fair." As with estimated subsonic impacts, we
believe that uncertainties in the changes in ozone caused by the hybrid fleet
are much greater than any other uncertainties in the calculation of changes
in UVery. Chapter 4 has considered only the uncertainty
estimate for an annually averaged Northern Hemisphere value, whereas reporting
of the UV calculations requires estimates of the uncertainties for a range of
latitudes and seasons. To achieve this, Chapter 5 has
taken the 67% likelihood range for percent change in UVery to be from (-2% +
the best estimate of the percent change) to (+3% + the best estimate of the
percent change).
The magnitude of the changes calculated for the impact of aviation may be compared
to those calculated for the background atmosphere for the period 1970 to 2050.
Expressed relative to 1970, the calculated changes in UVery at 45°N in July
are +8% for 1992, +3% for 2015, and -3% for 2050. The changes calculated for
the three background atmospheres reflect the changing levels of halogens and
NOx in the stratosphere and expected increases in NOx in the troposphere, particularly
at northern mid-latitudes, as a result of increased industrial activity. Observed
changes in total ozone from 1970 to 1992 imply smaller percentage increases
in UVery, indicating the degree of uncertainty in the model predictions.
Increases in the abundance of atmospheric aerosols or the frequency of cirrus
clouds would, in general, lead to a decrease in ground-level UV irradiance,
where this change is only weakly dependent on wavelength. The change in aerosol
loading expected from increased aircraft operations between the present and
2050 is small relative to the natural aerosol background and to anthropogenic
influences other than those related to aviation. The effect of the aircraft-related
increase in aerosols is to reduce UV irradiance by less than 0.1%. Calculations
indicate that aircraft-related increases in contrails lead to a decrease in
UV irradiance of less than 0.2% in an area-averaged sense in regions where 5%
of the sky is covered.
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