Figure 21: Analysis of inter-model
consistency in regional relative warming (warming relative to each model's global
average warming). Regions are classified as showing either agreement on warming
in excess of 40% above the global average ('Much greater than average warming'),
agreement on warming greater than the global average ('Greater than average warming'),
agreement on warming less than the global average ('Less than average warming'),
or disagreement amongst models on the magnitude of regional relative warming ('Inconsistent
magnitude of warming'). There is also a category for agreement on cooling (which
never occurs). A consistent result from at least seven of the nine models is deemed
necessary for agreement. The global annual average warming of the models used
span 1.2 to 4.5°C for A2 and 0.9
to 3.4°C for B2, and therefore
a regional 40% amplification represents warming ranges of 1.7 to 6.3°C for
A2 and 1.3 to 4.7°C for B2.
[Based on Chapter 10, Box
1, Figure 1]
