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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 |
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Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability 10.2.3 Observed changes in extreme climatic events New evidences on recent trends, particularly on the increasing tendency in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events in Asia over the last century and into the 21st century, are briefly discussed below and summarised in Table 10.3. In South-East Asia, extreme weather events associated with El-Niño were reported to be more frequent and intense in the past 20 years (Trenberth and Hoar, 1997; Aldhous, 2004). Table 10.3. Summary of observed changes in extreme events and severe climate anomalies | Country/Region | Key trend | Reference |
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| Heatwaves |
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| Russia | Heatwaves broke past 22-year record in May 2005 | Shein, 2006 | | Mongolia | Heatwave duration has increased by 8 to 18 days in last 40 years; coldwave duration has shortened by 13.3 days | Batima et al., 2005a | | China | Increase in frequency of short duration heatwaves in recent decade, increasing warmer days and nights in recent decades | Zhai et al., 1999; Zhai and Pan, 2003 | | Japan | Increasing incidences of daily maximum temperature >35°C, decrease in extremely low temperature | Kawahara and Yamazaki, 1999; Japan Meteorological Agency, 2005 | | Korea | Increasing frequency of extreme maximum temperatures with higher values in 1980s and 1990s; decrease in frequency of record low temperatures during 1958 to 2001 | Ryoo et al., 2004 | | India | Frequency of hot days and multiple-day heatwave has increased in past century; increase in deaths due to heat stress in recent years | De and Mukhopadhyay, 1998; Lal, 2003 | | South-East Asia | Increase in hot days and warm nights and decrease in cold days and nights between 1961 and 1998 | Manton et al., 2001; Cruz et al., 2006; Tran et al., 2005 | | Intense Rains and Floods |
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| Russia | Increase in heavy rains in western Russia and decrease in Siberia; increase in number of days with more than 10 mm rain; 50 to 70% increase in surface runoff in Siberia | Gruza et al., 1999; Izrael and Anokhin, 2001; Ruosteenoja et al., 2003; Gruza and Rankova, 2004 | | China | Increasing frequency of extreme rains in western and southern parts including Changjiang river, and decrease in northern regions; more floods in Changjiang river in past decade; more frequent floods in North-East China since 1990s; more intense summer rains in East China; severe flood in 1999; seven-fold increase in frequency of floods since 1950s | Zhai et al., 1999; Ding and Pan, 2002; Zhai and Pan, 2003; Zhai, 2004 | | Japan | Increasing frequency of extreme rains in past 100 years attributed to frontal systems and typhoons; serious flood in 2004 due to heavy rains brought by 10 typhoons; increase in maximum rainfall during 1961 to 2000 based on records from 120 stations | Kawahara and Yamazaki, 1999; Isobe, 2002; Kajiwara et al., 2003; Kanai et al., 2004 | | South Asia | Serious and recurrent floods in Bangladesh, Nepal and north-east states of India during 2002, 2003 and 2004; a record 944 mm of rainfall in Mumbai, India on 26 to 27 July 2005 led to loss of over 1,000 lives with loss of more than US$250 million; floods in Surat, Barmer and in Srinagar during summer monsoon season of 2006; 17 May 2003 floods in southern province of Sri Lanka were triggered by 730 mm rain | India Meteorological Department, 2002 to 2006; Dartmouth Flood Observatory, 2003. | | South-East Asia | Increased occurrence of extreme rains causing flash floods in Vietnam; landslides and floods in 1990 and 2004 in the Philippines, and floods in Cambodia in 2000 | FAO/WFP, 2000; Environment News Service, 2002; FAO, 2004a; Cruz et al., 2006; Tran et al., 2005 | | Droughts |
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| Russia | Decreasing rain and increasing temperature by over 1°C have caused droughts; 27 major droughts in 20th century have been reported | Golubev and Dronin, 2003; Izrael and Sirotenko, 2003 | | Mongolia | Increase in frequency and intensity of droughts in recent years; droughts in 1999 to 2002 affected 70% of grassland and killed 12 million livestock | Batima, 2003; Natsagdorj et al., 2005 | | China | Increase in area affected by drought has exceeded 6.7 Mha since 2000 in Beijing, Hebei Province, Shanxi Province, Inner Mongolia and North China; increase in dust storm affected area | Chen et al., 2001; Yoshino, 2000, 2002; Zhou, 2003 | | South Asia | 50% of droughts associated with El Niño; consecutive droughts in 1999 and 2000 in Pakistan and N-W India led to sharp decline in watertables; consecutive droughts between 2000 and 2002 caused crop failures, mass starvation and affected ~11 million people in Orissa; droughts in N-E India during summer monsoon of 2006 | Webster et al., 1998; Lal, 2003; India Meteorological Department, 2006 | | South-East Asia | Droughts normally associated with ENSO years in Myanmar, Laos, Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam; droughts in 1997 to 98 caused massive crop failures and water shortages and forest fires in various parts of Philippines, Laos and Indonesia | Duong, 2000; Kelly and Adger, 2000; Glantz, 2001; PAGASA, 2001 | | Cyclones/Typhoons |
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| Philippines | On an average, 20 cyclones cross the Philippines Area of Responsibility with about 8 to 9 landfall each year; with an increase of 4.2 in the frequency of cyclones entering PAR during the period 1990 to 2003 | PAGASA, 2001 | | China | Number and intensity of strong cyclones increased since 1950s; 21 extreme storm surges in 1950 to 2004 of which 14 occurred during 1986 to 2004 | Fan and Li, 2005 | | South Asia | Frequency of monsoon depressions and cyclones formation in Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea on the decline since 1970 but intensity is increasing causing severe floods in terms of damages to life and property | Lal, 2001, 2003 | | Japan | Number of tropical storms has two peaks, one in mid 1960s and another in early 1990s, average after 1990 and often lower than historical average | Japan Meteorological Agency, 2005 |
Significantly longer heatwave duration has been observed in many countries of Asia, as indicated by pronounced warming trends and several cases of severe heatwaves (De and Mukhopadhyay, 1998; Kawahara and Yamazaki, 1999; Zhai et al., 1999; Lal, 2003; Zhai and Pan, 2003; Ryoo et al., 2004; Batima et al., 2005a; Cruz et al., 2006; Tran et al., 2005). Generally, the frequency of occurrence of more intense rainfall events in many parts of Asia has increased, causing severe floods, landslides, and debris and mud flows, while the number of rainy days and total annual amount of precipitation has decreased (Zhai et al., 1999; Khan et al., 2000; Shrestha et al., 2000; Izrael and Anokhin, 2001; Mirza, 2002; Kajiwara et al., 2003; Lal, 2003; Min et al., 2003; Ruosteenoja et al., 2003; Zhai and Pan, 2003; Gruza and Rankova, 2004; Zhai, 2004). However, there are reports that the frequency of extreme rainfall in some countries has exhibited a decreasing tendency (Manton et al., 2001; Kanai et al., 2004). Increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in many parts of Asia are attributed largely to a rise in temperature, particularly during the summer and normally drier months, and during ENSO events (Webster et al., 1998; Duong, 2000; PAGASA, 2001; Lal, 2002, 2003; Batima, 2003; Gruza and Rankova, 2004; Natsagdorj et al., 2005). Recent studies indicate that the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones originating in the Pacific have increased over the last few decades (Fan and Li, 2005). In contrast, cyclones originating from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea have been noted to decrease since 1970 but the intensity has increased (Lal, 2001). In both cases, the damage caused by intense cyclones has risen significantly in the affected countries, particularly India, China, Philippines, Japan, Vietnam and Cambodia, Iran and Tibetan Plateau (PAGASA, 2001; ABI, 2005; GCOS, 2005a, b). |
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