19.3.2.4 Distribution of market impacts

Global market impacts mask substantial variation in market impacts at the continental, regional, national and local scales. Even if gross world product were to change just a few percent, national economies could be altered by relatively large amounts. For example, Maddison (2003) reports increases in cost of living in low-latitude areas and decreases in high-latitude areas from a 2.5°C warming. All studies with regional detail show Africa, for example, with climate damages of the order of several percent of gross domestic product (GDP) at 2°C increase in GMT or even lower levels of warming (*). As noted below, very small economies such as Kiribati face damages from climate change in the range of 20% of their GDP (•) (see Chapter 16 Section 16.4.3). The distributional heterogeneity in market system impacts reflects the equity criterion described in Section 19.2 when considering which impacts may be considered ‘key’.

19.3.2.5 Societal systems

With regard to vulnerability of societal systems, there are myriad thresholds specific to particular groups and systems at specific time-frames beyond which they can be vulnerable to variability and to climate change (Yamin et al., 2005). These differences in vulnerability are a function of a number of factors. Exposure is one key factor. For example, crops at low latitudes will have greater exposure to higher temperatures than crops at mid- and high latitudes. Thus, yields for grain crops, which are sensitive to heat, are more likely to decline at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes. Social systems in low-lying coastal areas will vary in their exposure and adaptive capacities, yet most will have increased vulnerability with greater warming and associated sea-level rises or storm surges.

A second key factor affecting vulnerability is the capacity of social systems to adapt to their environment, including coping with the threats it may pose, and taking advantage of beneficial changes. Smit et al. (2001) identified a number of determinants of adaptive capacity, including such factors as wealth, societal organisation and access to technology (see also Yohe and Tol, 2002). These attributes differentiate vulnerability to climate change across societies facing similar exposure. For example, Nicholls (2004) and Nicholls and Tol (2006) found that level of development and population growth are very important factors affecting vulnerability to sea-level rise. The specific vulnerabilities of communities with climate-related risks, such as the elderly and the poor or indigenous communities, are typically much higher than for the population as a whole (see Section 14.2.6)

Even though some cold-related deaths and infectious disease exposure are likely to be reduced, on balance there is medium confidence that global mortality will increase as a result of climate change. It is estimated that an additional 5-170 million people will be at risk of hunger by the 2080s as a consequence of climate change (Chapter 5 Section 5.6.5). There is medium to high confidence that some other climate-sensitive health outcomes, including heatwave impacts, diarrhoeal diseases, flood-related risks, and diseases associated with exposure to elevated concentrations of ozone and aeroallergens, will increase with GMT (Chapter 8 Section 8.4.1). Development and adaptation are key factors influencing human health risk (Chapter 8 Section 8.6).

Vulnerability associated with water resources is complex because vulnerability is quite region-specific. In addition, the level of development and adaptation and social factors determining access to water are very important in determining vulnerability in the water sector. Studies differ as to whether climate change will increase or decrease the number of people living in water-stressed areas (e.g., Parry et al., 1999; Arnell, 2004; Hitz and Smith, 2004; Alcamo et al., 2007). Hundreds of millions of people are estimated to be affected by changes in water quantity and quality (Chapter 3 Section 3.4.3; Arnell, 2004) but uncertainties limit confidence and thus the degree to which these risks might be labelled as ‘key’. Floods and droughts appear to have increased in some regions and are likely to become more severe in the future (Chapter 3 Section 3.4.3).