7.5.2 Non-CO₂ gases

Table 7.9 shows mitigation potential for non-CO₂ gases in 2030 based on a global study conducted by the US EPA (2006a,b), which projected emission and mitigation costs to 2020. Emissions in 2030 were projected by linear extrapolation by region using 2010 and 2020 data. Mitigation costs were assumed to be constant between 2020 and 2030, and interpolated from US EPA data, which used different cost categories. The analysis uses US EPA’s technical adoption scenario, which assumes that industry will continue meeting its voluntary commitments. The SRES A1B and B2 scenarios used as the base case for the rest of this chapter do not include sufficient detail on non-CO₂ gases to allow a comparison of the two approaches. IPCC/TEAP (2005) contains significantly different estimates of 2015 baseline emissions for HFCs and PFCs in some sectors compared to Table 7.9. We note that these emissions are reported by end-use, not by the sectoral approach used in this report, and that insufficient information is provided to extrapolate to 2030. Caprolactam projections were not found in the literature. They were estimated based on historical data from a variety of industry sources. Mitigation costs and potentials were estimated by applying costs and potential from nitric acid production.

Table 7.9: Global mitigation potential in 2030 for non-CO₂ gases