Emission trends (global and regional)

Direct GHG emissions from industry are currently about 7.2 GtCO₂-eq. As the mitigation options discussed in this chapter include measures aimed at reducing the industrial use of electricity, emissions including those from electricity use are important for comparison. Total industrial sector GHG emissions were about 12 GtCO₂-eq in 2004, about 25% of the global total. CO₂ emissions (including electricity use) from the industrial sector grew from 6.0 GtCO₂ in 1971 to 9.9 GtCO₂ in 2004. In 2004, developed nations accounted for 35% of total energy-related CO₂ emissions, economies in transition for 11% and developing nations for 53% (see Figure TS.18). Industry also emits CO₂ from non-energy uses of fossil fuels and from non-fossil fuel sources. In 2000, these were estimated to total 1.7 GtCO₂ (high agreement, much evidence) [7.1.3].

Figure TS.18: Industrial sector energy-related CO₂ emissions (GtCO₂; including electricity use), 1971–2030. [Table 7.1, 7.2].

Note: Dark red – historic emissions; light red – projections according to SRES B2 scenario. Data extracted from Price et al. (2006).

EECCA = Countries of Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Industrial processes also emit other GHGs, including HFC-23 from the manufacture of HCFC-22; PFCs from aluminium smelting and semiconductor processing; SF₆ from use in flat panel screens (liquid crystal display) and semi-conductors, magnesium die casting, electrical equipment, aluminium melting, and others, and CH₄ and N₂O from chemical industry sources and food-industry waste streams. Total emission from these sources was about 0.4 GtCO₂-eq in 2000 (medium agreement, medium evidence) [7.1.3].

The projections for industrial CO₂ emissions for 2030 under the SRES-B2² scenarios are around 14 GtCO₂ (including electricity use) (see Figure TS.18). The highest average growth rates in industrial-sector CO₂ emissions are projected for developing countries. Growth in the regions of Central and Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, and Developing Asia is projected to slow in both scenarios for 2000–2030. CO₂ emissions are expected to decline in the Pacific OECD, North America and Western Europe regions for B2 after 2010. For non-CO₂ GHG emissions from the industrial sector, emissions by 2030 are projected to increase globally by a factor of 1.4, from 470 MtCO₂-eq. (130 MtC-eq) in 1990 to 670 MtCO₂-eq (180 MtC-eq.) in 2030 assuming no further action is taken to control these emissions. Mitigation efforts led to a decrease in non-CO₂ GHG emissions between 1990 and 2000, and many programmes for additional control are underway (see Table TS.9) (high agreement, medium evidence) [7.1.3].

Historically, the industrial sector has achieved reductions in energy intensity and emission intensity through adoption of energy efficiency and specific mitigation technologies, particularly in energy-intensive industries. The aluminium industry reported >70% reduction in PFC-emission intensity over the period 1990–2004 and the ammonia industry reported that plants designed in 2004 have a 50% reduction in energy intensity compared with those designed in 1960. Continuing to modernize ammonia-production facilities around the world will result in further energy-efficiency improvements. Reductions in refining energy intensity have also been reported [7.4.2, 7.4.3, 7.4.4].

The low technical and economic capacity of SMEs pose challenges for the diffusion of sound environmental technology, though some innovative R&D is taking place in SMEs.

A wide range of measures and technologies have the potential to reduce industrial GHG emissions. These technologies can be grouped into the categories of energy efficiency, fuel switching, power recovery, renewables, feedstock change, product change and material efficiency (Table TS.10). Within each category, some technologies, such as the use of more efficient electric motors, are broadly applicable across all industries, while others, such as top-gas pressure recovery in blast furnaces, are process-specific.

Later in the period to 2030, there will be a substantial additional potential from further energy- efficiency improvements and application of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)^[17] and non-GHG process technologies. Examples of such new technologies that are currently in the R&D phase include inert electrodes for aluminium manufacture and hydrogen for metal production (high agreement, much evidence) [7.2, 7.3, 7.4].

Mitigation potentials and costs in 2030 have been estimated in an industry-by-industry assessment of energy-intensive industries and an overall assessment of other industries. The approach yielded mitigation potentials of about 1.1 GtCO₂-eq at a cost of <20 US$/tCO₂ (74 US$/tC-eq); about 3.5 GtCO₂-eq at costs below <50 US$/tCO₂ (180 US$/tC-eq); and about 4 GtCO₂-eq/yr (0.60–1.4 GtC-eq/yr) at costs <US$100/tCO₂-eq (<US$370/tC-eq) under the B2 scenario. The largest mitigation potentials are in the steel, cement and pulp and paper industries, and in the control of non-CO₂ gases, and much of the potential is available at <50 US$/tCO₂-eq (<US$ 180/tC-eq). Application of CCS technology offers a large additional potential, albeit at higher cost.

A recently completed global study for nine groups of technologies indicates a mitigation potential for the industrial sector of 2.5-3.0 GtCO₂-eq/yr (0.68-0.82 GtC-eq/yr) in 2030 at costs of <25 US$/tCO₂ (< 92US$/tC) (2004$). While the estimate of mitigation potential is in the range found in this assessment, the estimate of mitigation cost is significantly lower (medium agreement, medium evidence) [7.5].