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9. Projections of Future Climate Change
Contents
Executive Summary
9.1 Introduction
9.1.1 Background and Recap of Previous Reports
9.1.2 New Types of Model Experiments since 1995
9.2 Climate and Climate Change
9.2.1 Climate Forcing and Climate Response
9.2.2 Simulating Forced Climate Change
9.2.2.1 Signal versus noise
9.2.2.2 Ensembles and averaging
9.2.2.3 Multi-model ensembles
9.2.2.4 Uncertainty
9.3 Projections of Climate Change
9.3.1 Global Mean Response
9.3.1.1 1%/yr CO2 increase (CMIP2) experiments
9.3.1.2 Projections of future climate from forcing scenario
experiments (IS92a)
9.3.1.3 Marker scenario experiments (SRES)
9.3.2 Patterns of Future Climate Change
9.3.2.1 Summary
9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission
Scenarios
9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of
greenhouse gases
9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response
9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity
9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake
9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes
9.3.4.4 Time-scales of response
9.3.5 Changes in Variability
9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability
9.3.5.2 Interannual variability
9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time-scale variability
9.3.5.4 Summary
9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events
9.3.6.1 Temperature
9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection
9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms
9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones
9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and
climate
9.3.6.6 Conclusions
9.4 General Summary
Appendix 9.1: Tuning of a Simple Climate Model to AOGCM Results
References
Co-ordinating Lead Authors
U. Cubasch, G.A. Meehl
Lead Authors
G.J. Boer, R.J. Stouffer, M. Dix, A. Noda, C.A. Senior, S. Raper, K.S. Yap
Contributing Authors
A. Abe-Ouchi, S. Brinkop, M. Claussen, M. Collins, J. Evans, I. Fischer-Bruns,
G. Flato, J.C. Fyfe, A. Ganopolski, J.M. Gregory, Z.-Z. Hu, F. Joos, T. Knutson,
R. Knutti, C. Landsea, L. Mearns, C. Milly, J.F.B. Mitchell, T. Nozawa, H. Paeth,
J. Räisänen, R. Sausen, S. Smith, T. Stocker, A. Timmermann, U. Ulbrich,
A. Weaver, J. Wegner, P. Whetton, T. Wigley, M. Winton, F. Zwiers
Review Editors
J.-W. Kim, J. Stone
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