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10. Regional Climate Information – Evaluation and Projections
Contents
Executive Summary
10.1 Introduction
10.1.1 Summary of SAR
10.1.2 The Regional Climate Problem
10.2 Deriving Regional Information: Principles, Objectives
and Assumptions
10.2.1 Coupled AOGCMs
10.2.2 High Resolution and Variable Resolution AGCM Experiments
10.2.3 Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
10.2.4 Empirical/Statistical and Statistical/Dynamical
Downscaling
10.2.5 Sources of Uncertainty in the Generation ofRegional
Climate Change Information
10.3 Regional Attributes of AOGCMs
10.3.1 Simulations of Current Climate
10.3.1.1 Mean climate
10.3.1.2 Climate variabilitwy and extreme events
10.3.2 Simulations of Climate Change
10.3.2.1 Mean climate
10.3.2.2 Climate variability and extreme events
10.3.3 Summary and Recommendations
10.4 GCMs with Variable and Increased Horizontal Resolution
10.4.1 Simulations of Current Climate
10.4.1.1 Mean climate
10.4.1.2 Climate variability and extreme events
10.4.2 Simulations of Climate Change
10.4.2.1 Mean climate
10.4.2.2 Climate variability and extreme events
10.4.3 Summary and Recommendations
10.5 Regional Climate Models
10.5.1 Simulations of Current Climate
10.5.1.1 Mean climate: Simulations using analyses
of observations
10.5.1.2 Mean climate: Simulations using GCM boundary conditions
10.5.1.3 Climate variability and extreme events
10.5.2 Simulations of Climate Change
10.5.2.1 Mean climate
10.5.2.2 Climate variability and extreme events
10.5.3 Summary and Recommendations
10.6 Empirical/Statistical and Statistical/Dynamical Methods
10.6.1 Introduction
10.6.2 Methodological Options
10.6.2.1 Weather generators
10.6.2.2 Transfer functions
10.6.2.3 Weather typing
10.6.3 Issues in Statistical Downscaling
10.6.3.1 Temporal variance
10.6.3.2 Evaluation
10.6.3.3 Choice of predictors
10.6.4 Intercomparison of Statistical Downscaling Methodologies
10.6.5 Summary and Recommendations
10.7 Intercomparison of Methods
10.8 Summary Assessment
Appendix 10.1
Appendix 10.2
Appendix 10.3
Appendix 10.4
References
Co-ordinating Lead Authors
F. Giorgi, B. Hewitson
Lead Authors
J. Christensen, M. Hulme, H. Von Storch, P. Whetton, R. Jones, L. Mearns, C.
Fu
Contributing Authors
R. Arritt, B. Bates, R. Benestad, G. Boer, A. Buishand, M. Castro, D. Chen,
W. Cramer, R. Crane, J. F. Crossley, M. Dehn, K. Dethloff, J. Dippner, S. Emori,
R. Francisco, J. Fyfe, F.W. Gerstengarbe, W. Gutowski, D. Gyalistras, I. Hanssen-Bauer,
M. Hantel, D.C. Hassell, D. Heimann, C. Jack, J. Jacobeit, H. Kato, R. Katz,
F. Kauker, T. Knutson, M. Lal, C. Landsea, R. Laprise, L.R. Leung, A.H. Lynch,
W. May, J.L. McGregor, N.L. Miller, J. Murphy, J. Ribalaygua, A. Rinke, M. Rummukainen,
F. Semazzi, K. Walsh, P. Werner, M. Widmann, R. Wilby, M. Wild, Y. Xue
Review Editors
M. Mietus, J. Zillman
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