TS.6.4.3 Global Projections

Robust Findings:

Even if concentrations of radiative forcing agents were to be stabilised, further committed warming and related climate changes would be expected to occur, largely because of time lags associated with processes in the oceans. {10.7}

Near-term warming projections are little affected by different scenario assumptions or different model sensitivities, and are consistent with that observed for the past few decades. The multi-model mean warming, averaged over 2011 to 2030 relative to 1980 to 1999 for all AOGCMs considered here, lies in a narrow range of 0.64°C to 0.69°C for the three different SRES emission scenarios B1, A1B and A2. {10.3}

Geographic patterns of projected warming show the greatest temperature increases at high northern latitudes and over land, with less warming over the southern oceans and North Atlantic. {10.3}

Changes in precipitation show robust large-scale patterns: precipitation generally increases in the tropical precipitation maxima, decreases in the subtropics and increases at high latitudes as a consequence of a general intensification of the global hydrological cycle. {10.3}

As the climate warms, snow cover and sea ice extent decrease; glaciers and ice caps lose mass and contribute to sea level rise. Sea ice extent decreases in the 21st century in both the Arctic and Antarctic. Snow cover reduction is accelerated in the Arctic by positive feedbacks and widespread increases in thaw depth occur over much of the permafrost regions. {10.3}

Based on current simulations, it is very likely that the Atlantic Ocean MOC will slow down by 2100. However, it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo a large abrupt transition during the course of the 21st century. {10.3}

Heat waves become more frequent and longer lasting in a future warmer climate. Decreases in frost days are projected to occur almost everywhere in the mid- and high latitudes, with an increase in growing season length. There is a tendency for summer drying of the mid-continental areas during summer, indicating a greater risk of droughts in those regions. {10.3, FAQ 10.1}

Future warming would tend to reduce the capacity of the Earth system (land and ocean) to absorb anthropogenic CO₂. As a result, an increasingly large fraction of anthropogenic CO₂ would stay in the atmosphere under a warmer climate. This feedback requires reductions in the cumulative emissions consistent with stabilisation at a given atmospheric CO₂ level compared to the hypothetical case of no such feedback. The higher the stabilisation scenario, the larger the amount of climate change and the larger the required reductions. {7.3, 10.4}

Key Uncertainties:

The likelihood of a large abrupt change in the MOC beyond the end of the 21st century cannot yet be assessed reliably. For low and medium emission scenarios with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations stabilised beyond 2100, the MOC recovers from initial weakening within one to several centuries. A permanent reduction in the MOC cannot be excluded if the forcing is strong and long enough. {10.7}

The model projections for extremes of precipitation show larger ranges in amplitude and geographical locations than for temperature. {10.3, 11.1}

The response of some major modes of climate variability such as ENSO still differs from model to model, which may be associated with differences in the spatial and temporal representation of present-day conditions. {10.3}

The robustness of many model responses of tropical cyclones to climate change is still limited by the resolution of typical climate models. {10.3}

Changes in key processes that drive some global and regional climate changes are poorly known (e.g., ENSO, NAO, blocking, MOC, land surface feedbacks, tropical cyclone distribution). {11.2–11.9}

The magnitude of future carbon cycle feedbacks is still poorly determined. {7.3, 10.4}