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8. Model Evaluation
Contents
Executive Summary
8.1 Summary of Second Assessment Report
8.2 What is Meant by Evaluation?
8.2.1 The Approach: Mean State and Variability in Climate
Models
8.2.2 The Basis
8.2.3 Figures of Merit
8.3 Model Hierarchy
8.3.1 Why is a Hierarchy of Models Important?
8.3.2 Three-dimensional Climate Models
8.3.3 Simple Climate Models
8.3.4 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity
8.4 Coupled Climate Models – Some Methodologies
8.4.1 Model Initialisation
8.4.2 Flux Adjustment and Energy Transports
8.4.2.1 Does the use of flux adjustments in a model
have a significant impact on climate change projections?
8.5 Coupled Climate Models – Means
8.5.1 Atmospheric Component
8.5.1.1 Development since the SAR
8.5.1.2 Tropospheric climate
8.5.1.3 Stratospheric climate
8.5.1.4 Summary
8.5.2 Ocean Component
8.5.2.1 Developments since the SAR
8.5.2.2 Present climate
8.5.2.3 Summary
8.5.3 Sea Ice Component
8.5.4 Land Surface Component (including the Terrestrial
Cryosphere)
8.5.4.1 Introduction
8.5.4.2 Developments since the SAR
8.5.4.3 Does uncertainty in land surface models contribute
to uncertainties in climate prediction?
8.5.5 Past Climates
8.5.5.1 Mid-Holocene
8.5.5.2 The last glacial maximum
8.5.5.3 Summary
8.6 20th Century Climate and Climate Variability
8.6.1 20th Century Coupled Model Integrations Including
Greenhouse Gases and Sulphate Aerosols
8.6.2 Coupled Model Variability
8.6.2.1 Comparison with the instrumental record
8.6.2.2 Comparison with palaeo-data
8.6.3 The Role of Volcanic and Solar Forcing and Changes
in Land Use
8.6.4 Climate of 20th Century: Summary
8.6.5 Commentary on Land Cover Change
8.7 Coupled Model: Phenomena
8.7.1 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
8.7.2 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
8.7.3 Monsoons
8.7.4 Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO)
8.7.5 The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic
Oscillation (AO)
8.7.6 Pacific-North American (PNA) and Western Pacific (WP)
Patterns
8.7.7 Blocking
8.7.8 Summary
8.8 Extreme Events
8.8.1 Extreme Temperature
8.8.2 Extreme Precipitation
8.8.3 Extra-tropical Storms
8.8.4 Tropical Cyclones
8.8.5 Summary and Discussion
8.9 Coupled Models – Dependence on Resolution
8.9.1 Resolution in Atmospheric Models
8.9.2 Resolution in Ocean Models
8.9.3 Summary
8.10 Sources of Uncertainty and Levels of Confidence in Coupled
Models
8.10.1 Uncertainties in Evaluating Coupled Models
8.10.2 Levels of Confidence
8.10.3 Assessment
References
Co-ordinating Lead Author
B.J. McAvaney
Lead Authors
C. Covey, S. Joussaume, V. Kattsov, A. Kitoh, W. Ogana, A.J. Pitman, A.J. Weaver,
R.A. Wood, Z.-C. Zhao
Contributing Authors
K. AchutaRao, A. Arking, A. Barnston, R. Betts, C. Bitz, G. Boer, P. Braconnot,
A. Broccoli, F. Bryan, M. Claussen, R. Colman, P. Delecluse, A. Del Genio, K.
Dixon, P. Duffy, L. Dümenil, M. England, T. Fichefet, G. Flato, J.C. Fyfe,
N. Gedney, P. Gent, C. Genthon, J. Gregory, E. Guilyardi, S. Harrison, N. Hasegawa,
G. Holland, M. Holland, Y. Jia, P.D. Jones, M. Kageyama, D. Keith, K. Kodera,
J. Kutzbach, S. Lambert, S. Legutke, G. Madec, S. Maeda, M.E. Mann, G. Meehl,
I. Mokhov, T. Motoi, T. Phillips, J. Polcher, G.L. Potter, V. Pope, C. Prentice,
G. Roff, F. Semazzi, P. Sellers, D.J. Stensrud, T. Stockdale, R. Stouffer, K.E.
Taylor, K. Trenberth, R. Tol, J. Walsh, M. Wild, D. Williamson, S.-P. Xie, X.-H.
Zhang, F. Zwiers
Review Editors
Y. Qian, J. Stone
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