2.1. Introduction

2.2. Detection of Response to Climate Change by Using Indicator Species or Systems

2.2.1. Detection in Natural Systems

2.2.1.1. Predicted Physical Responses to Climatic Warming Trends
2.2.1.2. Predicted Biological Responses to Climatic Warming Trends
2.2.1.3. Bioclimatic Models
2.2.1.4. Strengths and Limitations of Data
2.2.1.5. Data and Response Types

2.2.2. Interpretation of Causation from Correlative Data

2.2.2.1. Lines of Evidence
2.2.2.2. Complex Systems and Responses
2.2.2.3. Methodological Considerations

2.2.3. Detection in Managed Systems

2.2.3.1. Human Health
2.2.3.2. Agriculture

2.2.4. Advances since the SAR and Future Needs

2.3. Anticipating Effects of Climate Change

2.3.1. Background
2.3.2. What are Appropriate Scales of Analysis for Impact Assessments?
2.3.3. What should be the Baseline for Comparison?
2.3.4. How should Integrated Scenarios of Climatic and Socioeconomic Change be Used?
2.3.5. What are the Prospects for Assessing the Impacts of Climatic Extremes and Variability?

2.3.5.1. Developing Scenarios of Changes in Variability and Extreme Events
2.3.5.2. Estimating First-Order Impacts
2.3.5.3. Analyzing Institutional and Stakeholder Responses
2.3.5.4. Large-Scale Effects

2.3.6. How can Transient Effects be Included in Methods and Tools?
2.3.7. What Recent Progress has been Made in Assessing Adaptive Capacity?
2.3.8. How can Vulnerability Assessments be Related to Policies for Reducing GHG Emissions?

2.4 Integrated Assessment

2.4.1 Integrated Assessment Analyses
2.4.2 State of the Art

2.5. Methods for Costing and Valuation

2.5.1. Elements of Costing and Valuation Methods

2.5.1.1. Opportunity Cost and the Foundations of Valuation Methods
2.5.1.2. Specifying the Baseline
2.5.1.3. Discounting the Future

2.5.2. Market Impacts

2.5.2.1. Deadweight Loss
2.5.2.2. Preexisting Distortions

2.5.3. Nonmarket Impacts

2.5.3.1. Direct Methods of Valuation
2.5.3.2. Indirect Methods of Valuation

2.5.4. Cost of Uncertainty

2.5.4.1. Insurance and the Cost of Uncertainty
2.5.4.2. The Value of Information
2.5.4.3. Uncertainty and Discounting

2.5.5. Equity and Distribution

2.5.5.1. Interpersonal Comparisons
2.5.5.2. Comparisons Across Nations
2.5.5.3. Ensuring Equity

2.5.6. Alternative Metrics for Measuring Costs

2.6. Characterizing Uncertainty and "Levels of Confidence" in Climate Assessment

2.6.1. Treatments of Uncertainties in Previous IPCC Assessments
2.6.2. "Objective" and "Subjective" Probabilities are not Always Explicitly Distinguished
2.6.3. Making Estimates

2.6.3.1. Identifying Extreme Values, Ranges, and Thresholds
2.6.3.2. Valuation Issues

2.6.4. Aggregation and the Cascade of Uncertainty
2.6.5. The Debate over the Quality of Human Judgment

2.6.5.1. Deficiencies in Human Judgment
2.6.5.2. Violation of Probability Laws
2.6.5.3. Overconfidence

2.6.6. Building Experience with Subjective Methods in a "Science for Policy" Assessment

2.7. Decision Analytic Methods and Frameworks

2.7.1. Decision Analysis to Support Adaptive Decisions—Introduction to Frameworks and Principles
2.7.2. Major DAFs and their Use in Adaptation Studies

2.7.2.1. Decision Analysis
2.7.2.2. Cost-Benefit Analysis
2.7.2.3. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
2.7.2.4. Policy Exercise Approach

2.7.3. Relevance and Use of DAFs in Sectoral Adaptation Decisions—Selected Examples
2.7.4. Relevance and Use of DAFs in Regional Adaptation Decisions—Selected Examples
2.7.5. Contribution of DAFs in Adaptation to Integrated Climate Change Decisions on Balancing Mitigation and Adaptation

2.8. Conclusion

References

Q.K. AHMAD (BANGLADESH) AND RICHARD A. WARRICK (NEW Z E A L A N D )

Lead Authors:
T.E. Downing (UK), S. Nishioka (Japan), K.S. Parikh (India), C. Parmesan (USA), S.H. Schneider (USA), F. Toth (Germany), G. Yohe (USA)

Contributing Authors:
A.U. Ahmed (Bangladesh), P. Ayton (UK), B.B. Fitzharris (New Zealand), J.E. Hay (New Zealand), R.N. Jones (Australia), G. Morgan (USA), R. Moss (USA), W. North (USA), G. Petschel-Held (Germany), R. Richels (USA)

Review Editors:
I. Burton (Canada) and R. Kates (USA)

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