6.2 Drivers and projections of future climate changes and their impacts

Robust findings

With current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades. {WGIII 3.2, SPM}

For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emissions scenarios. {WGI 10.3, 10.7, SPM}

Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21^st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20^th century. {WGI 10.3, 11.1, SPM}

The pattern of future warming where land warms more than the adjacent oceans and more in northern high latitudes is seen in all scenarios. {WGI 10.3, 11.1, SPM}

Warming tends to reduce terrestrial ecosystem and ocean uptake of atmospheric CO₂, increasing the fraction of anthropogenic emissions that remains in the atmosphere. {WGI 7.3, 10.4, 10.5, SPM}

Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries even if GHG emissions were to be reduced sufficiently for GHG concentrations to stabilise, due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks. {WGI 10.7, SPM}

Equilibrium climate sensitivity is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C. {WGI 8.6, 9.6, Box 10.2, SPM}

Some systems, sectors and regions are likely to be especially affected by climate change. The systems and sectors are some ecosystems (tundra, boreal forest, mountain, mediterranean-type, mangroves, salt marshes, coral reefs and the sea-ice biome), low-lying coasts, water resources in some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry topics and in areas dependent on snow and ice melt, agriculture in low-latitude regions, and human health in areas with low adaptive capacity. The regions are the Arctic, Africa, small islands and Asian and African megadeltas. Within other regions, even those with high incomes, some people, areas and activities can be particularly at risk. {WGII TS.4.5}

Impacts are very likely to increase due to increased frequencies and intensities of some extreme weather events. Recent events have demonstrated the vulnerability of some sectors and regions, including in developed countries, to heat waves, tropical cyclones, floods and drought, providing stronger reasons for concern as compared to the findings of the TAR. {WGII Table SPM.2, 19.3}

Key uncertainties

Uncertainty in the equilibrium climate sensitivity creates uncertainty in the expected warming for a given CO₂-eq stabilisation scenario. Uncertainty in the carbon cycle feedback creates uncertainty in the emissions trajectory required to achieve a particular stabilisation level. {WGI 7.3, 10.4, 10.5, SPM}

Models differ considerably in their estimates of the strength of different feedbacks in the climate system, particularly cloud feedbacks, oceanic heat uptake and carbon cycle feedbacks, although progress has been made in these areas. Also, the confidence in projections is higher for some variables (e.g. temperature) than for others (e.g. precipitation), and it is higher for larger spatial scales and longer time averaging periods. {WGI 7.3, 8.1-8.7, 9.6, 10.2, 10.7, SPM; WGII 4.4}

Aerosol impacts on the magnitude of the temperature response, on clouds and on precipitation remain uncertain. {WGI 2.9, 7.5, 9.2, 9.4, 9.5}

Future changes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet mass, particularly due to changes in ice flow, are a major source of uncertainty that could increase sea level rise projections. The uncertainty in the penetration of the heat into the oceans also contributes to the future sea level rise uncertainty. {WGI 4.6, 6.4, 10.3, 10.7, SPM}

Large-scale ocean circulation changes beyond the 21^st century cannot be reliably assessed because of uncertainties in the meltwater supply from the Greenland ice sheet and model response to the warming. {WGI 6.4, 8.7, 10.3 }

Projections of climate change and its impacts beyond about 2050 are strongly scenario- and model-dependent, and improved projections would require improved understanding of sources of uncertainty and enhancements in systematic observation networks. {WGII TS.6}

Impacts research is hampered by uncertainties surrounding regional projections of climate change, particularly precipitation. {WGII TS.6}

Understanding of low-probability/high-impact events and the cumulative impacts of sequences of smaller events, which is required for risk-based approaches to decision-making, is generally limited. {WGII 19.4, 20.2, 20.4, 20.9, TS.6}