Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

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6. Potential Climate Change from Aviation

Executive Summary

6.1. How Do Aircraft Cause Climate Change?

    6.1.1. Anthropogenic Climate Change, Variability, and Detection
    6.1.2. Aircraft-Induced Climate Change
    6.1.3. Aviation Scenarios Adopted for Climate Assessment
    6.1.4. Aviation's Contribution to the CO2 Budget

6.2. Radiative Forcing and GWP Concept

    6.2.1. The Concept of Radiative Forcing
    6.2.2. Global Warming Potential
    6.2.3. Alternative Indexing of Aviation's Climate Impact-The RF Index

6.3. Radiative Forcing from Aircraft-Induced Changes in Greenhouse Gases

    6.3.1. Models for Radiative Forcing
    6.3.2. Radiative Forcing for CO2
    6.3.3. Radiative Forcing for O3
    6.3.4. Radiative Forcing for CH4
    6.3.5. Radiative Forcing for H2O
    6.3.6. Uncertainties

6.4. Radiative Forcing from Aircraft-Induced Changes in Aerosols and Cloudiness

    6.4.1. Direct Radiative Forcing from Sulfate Aerosols
    6.4.2. Direct Radiative Forcing from Black Carbon Aerosols
    6.4.3. Radiative Forcing from Persistent Contrails and Indirect Effects on Clouds
    6.4.4. Future Scenarios
    6.4.5. Uncertainties

6.5. Relation between Radiative Forcing and Climate Change

    6.5.1. Radiative Forcing and Limits of the Concept
    6.5.2. Climate Signatures of Aircraft-Induced Ozone Perturbations

6.6. The Role of Aircraft in Climate Change- An Evaluation of Sample Scenarios

    6.6.1. Individual Components of Radiative Forcing
    6.6.2. Uncertainties and Confidence Intervals
    6.6.3. Aircraft as a Fraction of Total Radiative Forcing
    6.6.4. The HSCT Option and Radiative Forcing
    6.6.5 Climate Change
    6.6.6. Aviation and Anthropogenic Change



Lead Authors: A.S. Grossman, J.M. Haywood, D. Rind, B.H. Subbaraya

Contributors: P. Forster, A. Jain, M. Ponater, U. Schumann, W.-C. Wang, T.M.L. Wigley, D.J. Wuebbles

Review Editor: D. Yihui

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