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6. Potential Climate Change from Aviation
Executive Summary
6.1. How Do Aircraft Cause Climate Change?
6.1.1. Anthropogenic Climate Change, Variability, and Detection
6.1.2. Aircraft-Induced Climate Change
6.1.3. Aviation Scenarios Adopted for Climate Assessment
6.1.4. Aviation's Contribution to the CO2
Budget
6.2. Radiative Forcing and GWP Concept
6.2.1. The Concept of Radiative
Forcing
6.2.2. Global Warming Potential
6.2.3. Alternative Indexing of
Aviation's Climate Impact-The RF Index
6.3. Radiative Forcing from Aircraft-Induced Changes in
Greenhouse Gases
6.3.1. Models for Radiative Forcing
6.3.2. Radiative Forcing for CO2
6.3.3. Radiative Forcing for O3
6.3.4. Radiative Forcing for CH4
6.3.5. Radiative Forcing for H2O
6.3.6. Uncertainties
6.4. Radiative Forcing from Aircraft-Induced Changes in
Aerosols and Cloudiness
6.4.1. Direct Radiative Forcing
from Sulfate Aerosols
6.4.2. Direct Radiative Forcing from Black Carbon Aerosols
6.4.3. Radiative Forcing from
Persistent Contrails and Indirect Effects on Clouds
6.4.4. Future Scenarios
6.4.5. Uncertainties
6.5. Relation between Radiative Forcing and Climate Change
6.5.1. Radiative Forcing and
Limits of the Concept
6.5.2. Climate Signatures of Aircraft-Induced Ozone Perturbations
6.6. The Role of Aircraft in Climate Change- An Evaluation
of Sample Scenarios
6.6.1. Individual Components
of Radiative Forcing
6.6.2. Uncertainties and Confidence Intervals
6.6.3. Aircraft as a Fraction of Total Radiative Forcing
6.6.4. The HSCT Option and Radiative
Forcing
6.6.5 Climate Change
6.6.6. Aviation and Anthropogenic Change
References
MICHAEL PRATHER AND ROBERT SAUSEN
Lead Authors: A.S. Grossman, J.M. Haywood, D. Rind, B.H.
Subbaraya
Contributors: P. Forster, A. Jain, M. Ponater, U. Schumann,
W.-C. Wang, T.M.L. Wigley, D.J. Wuebbles
Review Editor: D. Yihui
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