2. Observed Climate Variability and Change
Contents
Executive Summary
2.1 Introduction
2.2 How Much is the World Warming?
2.2.1 Background
2.2.2 Temperature in the Instrumental
Record for Land and Oceans
2.2.2.1 Land-surface air temperature
2.2.2.2 Sea surface temperature and ocean
air temperature
2.2.2.3 Land and sea combined
2.2.2.4 Are the land and ocean surface temperature
changes mutually consistent?
2.2.2.5 Sub-surface ocean temperatures and
salinities
2.2.3 Temperature of the Upper Air
2.2.4 How do Surface and Upper Air Temperature
Variations Compare?
2.2.5 Changes in the Cryosphere
2.2.5.1 Snow cover, including snowfall
2.2.5.2 Sea-ice extent and thickness
2.2.5.3 Permafrost
2.2.5.4 Mountain glaciers
2.2.5.5 Lake and river ice
2.2.6 Are the Retreat of Glaciers, Sea
Ice, and Snow Cover Consistent with the Surface Temperature Trends?
2.2.7 Summary
2.3 Is the Recent Warming Unusual?
2.3.1 Background
2.3.2 Temperature of the Past 1,000 Years
2.3.2.1 Palaeoclimate proxy indicators
2.3.2.2 Multi-proxy synthesis of recent
temperature change
2.3.3 Was there a “Little Ice Age” and
a “Medieval Warm Period”?
2.3.4 Volcanic and Solar Effects in the Recent
Record
2.3.5 Summary
2.4 How Rapidly did Climate Change in the Distant
Past?
2.4.1 Background
2.4.2 How Stable was the Holocene Climate?
2.4.3 How Fast did Climate Change during the
Glacial Period?
2.4.4 How Stable was the Previous Inter-glacial?
2.4.5 Summary
2.5 How have Precipitation and Atmospheric
Moisture Changed?
2.5.1 Background
2.5.2 Changes in Precipitation and Related
Variables
2.5.2.1 Land
2.5.2.2 Palaeo-drought
2.5.2.3 Ocean
2.5.3 Water Vapour
2.5.3.1 Surface water vapour
2.5.3.2 Lower-tropospheric water vapour
2.5.3.3 Upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric
water vapour
2.5.4 Evaporation
2.5.4.1 Land
2.5.5 Clouds
2.5.5.1 Land
2.5.5.2 Ocean
2.5.5.3 Global
2.5.6 Summary
2.6 Are the Atmospheric/Oceanic Circulations
Changing?
2.6.1 Background
2.6.2 El Niño-Southern Oscillation
and Tropical/Extra-tropical Interaction
2.6.3 Decadal to Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation,
and the North Pacific Oscillation
2.6.4 Monsoons
2.6.5 The Northern Hemisphere, excluding the
North Pacific Ocean
2.6.6 The Southern Hemisphere
2.6.7 Summary
2.7 Has Climate Variability, or have Climate
Extremes, Changed?
2.7.1 Background
2.7.2 Is There Evidence for Changes in Variability
or Extremes?
2.7.2.1 Temperature
2.7.2.2 Precipitation
2.7.3 Is There Evidence for Changes in
Extreme Weather or Climate Events?
2.7.3.1 Tropical cyclones
2.7.3.2 Extra-tropical cyclones
2.7.3.3 Droughts and wet spells
2.7.3.4 Tornadoes, hail and other severe
local weather
2.7.4 Summary
2.8 Are the Observed Trends Internally Consistent?
References
Co-ordinating Lead Author
C.K. Folland, T.R. Karl
Lead Authors
J.R. Christy, R.A. Clarke, G.V. Gruza, J. Jouzel, M.E. Mann, J. Oerlemans, M.J.
Salinger, S.-W. Wang
Contributing Authors
J. Bates, M. Burgess, M. Crowe, P. Frich, P. Groisman, J. Hurrell, P. Jones,
D. Parker, T. Peterson, D. Robinson, J. Walsh,
M. Abbott, L. Alexander, H. Alexandersson, R. Allan, R. Alley, P. Ambenje, P.
Arkin, L. Bajuk, R. Balling,
M.Y. Bardin, R. Bradley, R. Brázdil, K.R. Briffa, H. Brooks, R.D. Brown,
S. Brown, M. Brunet-India,
M. Cane, D. Changnon, S. Changnon, J. Cole, D. Collins, E. Cook, A. Dai, A.
Douglas, B. Douglas,
J.C. Duplessy, D. Easterling, P. Englehart, R.E. Eskridge, D. Etheridge, D.
Fisher, D. Gaffen, K. Gallo,
E. Genikhovich, D. Gong, G. Gutman, W. Haeberli, J. Haigh, J. Hansen, D. Hardy,
S. Harrison, R. Heino,
K. Hennessy, W. Hogg, S. Huang, K. Hughen, M.K. Hughes, M. Hulme, H. Iskenderian,
O.M. Johannessen,
D. Kaiser, D. Karoly, D. Kley, R. Knight, K. K. Kumar, K. Kunkel, M. Lal, C.
Landsea, J. Lawrimore,
J. Lean, C. Leovy, S. Levitus, H. Lins, R. Livezey, K.M. Lugina, I. Macadam,
J.A. Majorowicz, B. Manighetti,
J. Marengo, E. Mekis, M.W. Miles, A. Moberg, I. Mokhov, V. Morgan, L. Mysak,
M. New, J. Norris,
L. Ogallo, J. Overpeck, T. Owen, D. Paillard, T. Palmer, C. Parkinson, C.R.
Pfister, N. Plummer, H. Pollack,
C. Prentice, R. Quayle, E.Y. Rankova, N. Rayner, V.N. Razuvaev, G. Ren, J. Renwick,
R. Reynolds,
D. Rind, A. Robock, R. Rosen, S. Rösner, R. Ross, D. Rothrock, J.M. Russell,
M. Serreze, W.R. Skinner,
J. Slack, D.M. Smith, S. Smith, D. Stahle, M. Stendel, A. Sterin, T. Stocker,
B. Sun, V. Swail, V. Thapliyal,
L. Thompson, W.J. Thompson, A. Timmermann, R. Toumi, K. Trenberth, H. Tuomenvirta,
T. van Ommen,
D. Vaughan, K.Y. Vinnikov, U. von Grafenstein, H. von Storch, M. Vuille, P.
Wadhams, J.M. Wallace,
S. Warren, W. White, P. Xie, P. Zhai
Review Editors
R. Hallgren, B. Nyenzi
|