Executive Summary

5.1. Introduction and Scope

5.2. Effects of Global Change on the Terrestrial Biosphere

5.2.1. Observational Studies
5.2.2. Current Models of Ecosystem Change
5.2.3. Impacts on Biodiversity

5.2.3.1. Global Models of Biodiversity Change

5.2.4. Challenges

5.2.4.1. Landscape Processes
5.2.4.2. Will Organisms have to Migrate?
5.2.4.3. Human Land-Use Issues
5.2.4.4. Testing Models of Ecosystem Response

5.3. Agriculture

5.3.1. State of the Global Agricultural Sector
5.3.2. Pressures on Agriculture Sector

5.3.2.1. Degradation of Natural Resources
5.3.2.2. Other Global Change Factors

5.3.3. Response of Crops and Livestock and Impacts on Food and Fiber

5.3.3.1. Interaction between Rising CO₂ Concentrations and Climate Change

5.3.3.1.1. Interactive effects of temperature increase and atmospheric CO₂ concentration
5.3.3.1.2. Interactive effects of water availability and atmospheric CO₂ concentration
5.3.3.1.3. Interactive effects of atmospheric chemistry and CO₂ concentration

5.3.3.2. Interactive Effects of CO₂ Concentrations, Climate Change, Soils, and Biotic Factors

5.3.3.2.1. Interactive effects of CO₂ concentrations with soils
5.3.3.2.2. Interactions between effects of climate change and soil degradation
5.3.3.2.3. Interactions with weeds, pests, and diseases

5.3.3.3. Impacts on Livestock
5.3.3.4. Response of Plant Crops and Possible Adaptation Options

5.3.4. Impacts and Adaptation at Farm to Subnational Regional Scales

5.3.4.1. Modeling Crop Yield Impact
5.3.4.2. Historical Analogs of Adaptation
5.3.4.3. Agronomic Adaptation of Yields
5.3.4.4. Adaptation of Livestock
5.3.4.5. Adaptation Effects on Farm and Regional Land Use and Income
5.3.4.6. Environmental and Natural Resource Consequences of Responses and Adaptation to Climate Change
5.3.4.7. Note on Costs of Adaptation

5.3.5. Modeling Impacts and Adaptation in a Global Economy
5.3.6. Vulnerability of the Agricultural Sector

5.3.6.1. How Much Warming can Global Agriculture Absorb Before Prices Rise?
5.3.6.2. Vulnerable Regions and Populations

5.4. Wildlife in Ecosystems

5.4.1. State of Wildlife

5.4.1.1. Current Status of Endangered/Extinct Animals
5.4.1.2. Species Status from Secure to Extinction: Ranking Risks
5.4.1.3. Wildlife Ties to Goods and Services

5.4.2. Pressures on Wildlife
5.4.3. Responses of Wildlife and Impacts on Goods and Services

5.4.3.1. Changes Exhibited by Animals

5.4.3.1.1. Shifts in animal ranges and abundances
5.4.3.1.2. Changes in timing (phenology)
5.4.3.1.3. Changes in morphology, physiology, and behavior
5.4.3.1.4. Changes in community composition, biotic interactions, and behavior

5.4.3.2. Model Projections of Wildlife Responses
5.4.3.3. Impacts on Goods and Services with Market Values

5.4.3.3.1. Control of pest species and disease vectors
5.4.3.3.2. Pollinators
5.4.3.3.3. Seed dispersal
5.4.3.3.4. Decomposers and soil maintainers
5.4.3.3.5. Protection of endangered species
5.4.3.3.6. Subsistence hunting
5.4.3.3.7. Recreational use of animals and ecotourism

5.4.3.4. Impacts on Goods and Services with Nonmarket Valuations

5.4.3.4.1. Cultural and religious importance of animals
5.4.3.4.2. Wildlife and scientific information
5.4.3.4.3. Ecosystem function and biodiversity maintenance

5.4.4. Adaptation by Humans for Changes in Goods and Services

5.4.4.1. Parks and Reserves
5.4.4.2. Captive Breeding and Translocations
5.4.4.3. Replacing Lost Ecosystem Services

5.4.5. Equity Issues
5.4.6. Vulnerabilities, Sensitivities, Uncertainties

5.5. Rangelands (Grasslands, Savannas, and Deserts)

5.5.1. Current Status of Key Goods and Services
5.5.2. Major Pressures on Key Goods and Services
5.5.3. Responses of Rangelands and Impacts on Goods and Services
5.5.4. Adaptation Options

5.5.4.1. Landscape Management
5.5.4.2. Selection of Plants and Livestock
5.5.4.3. Multiple Cropping System and Agroforestry
5.5.4.4. Role of Community Participation and Public Policy

5.5.5. Vulnerabilities and Sensitivity to Climate Change

5.6. Forests and Woodlands

5.6.1. Current Status and Trends

5.6.1.1. Carbon Pools and Flux
5.6.1.2. Timber and Non-Wood Products

5.6.2. Pressures on Forests and Woodlands

5.6.2.1. Climate Variability and Climate Change
5.6.2.2. Changes in Disturbance Regimes

5.6.2.2.1. Pressures from fires
5.6.2.2.2. Pressures from diseases and insect herbivory
5.6.2.2.3. Pressures from other disturbances

5.6.2.3. Changing Demand for Forest Goods and Services
5.6.2.4. Land-Use Change
5.6.2.5. Other Pressures

5.6.3. Responses by Forests and Woodlands and Impacts on their Goods and Services

5.6.3.1. Responses and Impacts: Carbon Storage

5.6.3.1.1. Forest and species distribution
5.6.3.1.2. NPP and NEP
5.6.3.1.3. Insect herbivory, pests, and diseases
5.6.3.1.4. Elevated CO₂
5.6.3.1.5. Climate-induced changes in variability and weather extremes

5.6.3.2. Responses and Impacts: Timber and Non-Wood Goods and Services

5.6.3.2.1. Response to locally extreme events
5.6.3.2.2. Industrial timber
5.6.3.2.3. Recreation and non-wood forest products

5.6.4. Adaptation Options and Vulnerability of Forests and Woodlands

5.6.4.1. Adaptation in Timber and Non-Wood Goods and Services
5.6.4.2. Vulnerability Associated with NPP, NEP, and NBP
5.6.4.3. Vulnerability of Unmanaged Systems
5.6.4.4. Vulnerability in Managed Systems

5.7. Lakes and Streams

5.7.1. Status of Goods and Services
5.7.2 Pressures on Goods and Services
5.7.3 Responses of Lakes and Streams and Impacts on their Goods and Services

5.7.3.1. Adaptation in Timber and Non-Wood Goods and Services

5.7.3.1.1. Ice cover
5.7.3.1.2. Direct use of water

5.7.3.2. Vulnerability Associated with NPP, NEP, and NBP
5.7.3.3. Vulnerability of Unmanaged Systems

5.7.3.3.1. Eutrophication
5.7.3.3.2. Acidification
5.7.3.3.3. Toxics

5.7.3.4. Vulnerability in Managed Systems

5.7.3.4.1. Recreation
5.7.3.4.2. Heterogeneity in response

5.7.4 Adaptation Options
5.7.5 Vulnerability

5.8. Inland Wetlands

5.8.1. State of Wetland Services

5.8.1.1. Habitat and Biodiversity
5.8.1.2. Carbon Sink
5.8.1.3. Food and Fiber Production

5.8.2. Pressures on Wetland Services

5.8.2.1. Changes in Hydrology
5.8.2.2. Changes in Temperature
5.8.2.3. Land-Use Change

5.8.3. Impacts on Wetland Services

5.8.3.1. Habitat and Biodiversity
5.8.3.2. Carbon Sink
5.8.3.3. Food and Fiber

5.8.4. Adaptation Options for Wetlands
5.8.5. Vulnerability of Functions and Key Services of Wetlands

5.9. Arctic and Alpine Ecosystems

5.9.1. State and Trends of Goods and Services

5.9.1.1. Arctic Ecosystems
5.9.1.2. Alpine Ecosystems

5.9.2. Responses of Arctic and Alpine Ecosystems and Impacts on their Goods and Services

5.9.2.1. Impacts Resulting from Changes in Climate on Arctic Ecosystems
5.9.2.2. Impacts of Land-Use Change

5.9.3. Adaptation Options
5.9.4. Vulnerability

5.10. Research Needs across Ecosystems

Acknowledgments

References

Habiba Gitay (Australia), Sandra Brown (USA), William Easterling (USA), and Bubu Jallow (The Gambia)

Lead Authors:
J. Antle (USA), M. Apps (Canada), R. Beamish (Canada), T. Chapin (USA), W. Cramer (Germany), J. Frangi (Argentina), J. Laine (Finland), Lin Erda (China), J. Magnuson (USA), I. Noble (Australia), J. Price (USA), T. Prowse (Canada), T. Root (USA), E. Schulze (Germany), O. Sirotenko (Russia), B. Sohngen (USA), J. Soussana (France)

Contributing Authors:
H. Bugmann (Switzerland), C. Egorov (Russia), M. Finlayson (Australia), R. Fleming (Canada), W. Fraser (USA), L. Hahn (USA), K. Hall (USA), M. Howden (Australia), M. Hutchins (USA), J. Ingram (UK), Ju Hui (China), G. Masters (UK), P. Megonigal (USA), J. Morgan (USA), N. Myers (UK), R. Neilson (USA), S. Page (UK), C. Parmesan (USA), J. Rieley (UK), N. Roulet (Canada), G. Takle (USA), J. van Minnen (The Netherlands), D. Williams (Canada), T. Williamson (Canada), K. Wilson (USA)

Review Editors:
A. Fischlin (Switzerland) and S. Diaz (Argentina)

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